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Democrats have larger lead in Clark County than in '08, may get close to 90K lead in state

by Jon Ralston 10/12/2012 | 0 comments

The Democrats now have a larger voter registration edge over Republicans in populous Clark County than in 2008, when the party swept to top-to-bottom victories. The numbers continue to make Mitt Romney's path to victory very difficult and Dean Heller's road to a full Senate term quite problematic. Barack Obama won Clark by 19 percentage points in 2008 en route to a smashing 12-point statewide win. I doubt he'll do that this cycle, but if he wins by 12 to 14, he will win the state pretty easily.

Democrats stretch to pound Heller on "these people" remark; Democratic Hispanic "leaders" willing to act outraged

by Jon Ralston 10/12/2012 | 0 comments

On Thursday evening in the U.S. Senate debate sponsored by the Nevada Broadcasters Association, Sen. Dean Heller responded to a question about immigration thusly:

Tarkanian asks Horsford to pull new attack ad; Horsford says no

by Jon Ralston 10/12/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon SH Response to Counsel C&D ltr.pdf, PDF icon Ltr 101112 Cease and Desist Horsford.pdf

Congressional hopeful Danny Tarkanian has sent a cease and desist letter to his opponent, Steven Horsford, and TV stations, claiming a new ad defames him and contains a similar claim that won him a previous slander case. Tarkanian asserts that the ad is not unlike one about his being a resident agent for telemarketers that former state Senate opponent Mike Schneider ran, which resulted in a defamation judgment.

Downtown properties brace for Culinary protest, send out missive on 15-cent increase for health insurance/pension

by Jon Ralston 10/12/2012 | 0 comments

Remember that Culinary protest I told you about taking place Saturday on the same day as a celebration by the busiensses? A group of casinos are informing their employees -- a version of what is below was also sent in Spanish -- of their side of the story. Check it out (I agreed to remove any names): -------------

"To order voter guides for your church...."

by Jon Ralston 10/11/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon ffc.pdf, PDF icon ffc2.pdf

Ah, separation of church and state. "To order voter guides for your church...." That's what this group says at the bottom of a mail piece received today by people in Nevada. It is linked here, so judge for yourself. So they will hand out voter guides in church? Hmmm. The Faith and Freedom Coalition, which is bringing Mitt Romney's fellow LDS member Orrin Hatch to Las Vegas this weekend, was founded by Ralph Reed and has a Nevada affiliate.

Numbers game update: Dems move past 85,000-voter edge statewide, 124,000 in Clark

by Jon Ralston 10/11/2012 | 0 comments

The latest from the SOS and Clark County: The Democrats now are up to a 124,000-voter lead over the Republicans in Clark County, about where they were in 2008. Not that the world is the same, but: Barack Obama won Clark County, 58 percent to 39 percent with the same registration edge. Of course, Mitt Romney is not John McCain. McCain essentially abandoned Nevada and did not really campaign here. But you get the point. The statewide lead is now more than 85,000 for the Democrats. It was 100,000 at the close of registration in 2008.

SOS downplays reports of voter fraud, tries to head off GOP mischief

by Jon Ralston 10/11/2012 | 0 comments

He might not say so, but Secretary of State Ross Miller's news conference today was designed to head off rumblings, started by the GOP and fueled by tendentious "newspaper," that voter fraud may be occurring in Nevada.

Heck poll shows congressman up 11

by Jon Ralston 10/10/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon HfC_October Brushfire_MQ_121011.pdf

Rep. Joe Heck's pollster found the congressman with an 11 percentage point lead over Speaker John Oceguera in a poll he conducted this week. The survey by Wilson Perkins Allen showed Heck with a 48-37 lead, numbers very similar to the Precision Opinion poll taken last week, but very different from that Oceguera survey I also reported on this blog.

Suffolk poll: Obama, Heller hold small leads in Nevada

by Jon Ralston 10/10/2012 | 0 comments
Microsoft Office document icon NV-poll-release_v4.doc, Microsoft Office document icon FINAL_NV_Tables.doc, File FINAL_Marginals_Nevada.docx

President Obama and Sen. Dean Heller have small leads within the marghin of error in Nevada, according to a new poll conducted by Suffolk University in a partnership with KSNV-TV. The survey also contains many results on other issues, including some state issues such as whether gaming and mining pay their fair share of taxes. The statewide poll of 500 registered Nevada voters was conducted October 6-9, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent  Three documents are linked here:

Heck up with new ad featuring journalists slamming Oceguera

by Jon Ralston 10/10/2012 | 0 comments

Rep. Joe Heck is taking no chances with that new rape victim ad from his opponent, Speaker John Oceguera. He has a new ad featuring scathing reviews of the Oceguera ad from The Agenda's Elizabeth Crum and KLAS-TV's Steve Sebelius.

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