Heck poll shows congressman up 11

Rep. Joe Heck's pollster found the congressman with an 11 percentage point lead over Speaker John Oceguera in a poll he conducted this week.

The survey by Wilson Perkins Allen showed Heck with a 48-37 lead, numbers very similar to the Precision Opinion poll taken last week, but very different from that Oceguera survey I also reported on this blog.

The poll also showed that Mitt Romney is defeating President Obama by 51-44 in Congressional District 3. That is ominous, if accurate, for the president in this evenly divided district. 

The Hispanic population in the poll is only 6 percent, which pollster Chris Wilson said is based on previous turnout patterns (only about a quarter of Latinos have turned out in the district, he told me). The partisan divide is 39-39 -- Democrats now have a slight lead in the district.

Here's what pollster Wilson also told me:

Among independents Congressman Heck has reversed trend in the ballot from a five point deficit to an eight point lead (43-35) and has Oceguera’s unfavs have increased by 17 points to give him an image of 28 fav/28 unfav.  While Oceguera’s unfavs with Independents increased, it must be noted that his unfavs with Republicans have also increased by 30 points from August, driving most of the increase in his overall unfavorables.  

With women, Oceguera’s unfavs have increased substantially (+20 since August) while his negative attacks have had a negligible impact on Congressman Heck's in the same time period (+4).  While our overall negatives are higher (43 for Heck/25 for Oceguera ), our favorables with women are also higher (46 for Heck/ 33 for Oceguera).

Among women voters Congressman Heck has a four point lead.  Any Oceguera’s gains with women have been with Democrats (+9).  Oceguera has actually lost ground with Independent women (-6) while Heck has gained with that group (+3). 

Finally,  Congressman Heck leads in the heard of both ballot 46-41 (78% of the electorate), while Oceguera leads in the opinion of both ballot 44-47 (55% of the electorate).  That said the opinion of both ballot is a bit heavy on democrats (44D/36R).

The bottom line is that Congressman Heck have been able to absorb the brunt of Oceguera’s attack with little damage to his  image while at the same time driving Oceguera has seen his negatives increase substantially, particularly with independents.   At this point it appears that that Oceguera’s war on women attack hasn’t afforded him the gains he would like and may have actually backfired. 

Key numbers (Aug data in parenthesis)

HECK IMAGE

·         Total Favorable – 50%            (49%) 

·         Total Unfavorable – 39%         (39%)

·         Name ID – 97%                       (96%)

OCEGUERA IMAGE

·         Total Favorable – 31%            (31%)

·         Total Unfavorable – 26%         (26%)

·         Name Id – 79%                       (55%)

BALLOT

·         Heck – 48%                (48%)

·         Oceguera – 37%         (35%)

·         Murphy – 2%               (2%)

·         Jones – 2%                  (2%)

·         Undecided – 12%        (13%)

Finally, it might also interest you to know that 25% of our interviews were conducted to cell phones.

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(I am hoping to post the poll instrument later.)