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Democrats increase raw vote lead to 19,000 in urban counties
UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.) Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County. Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008. The numbers...
What early voting really means
So what do we know after two days of early voting? Not a lot -- but something. We know turnout was huge during that first weekend -- almost 60,000 voters turned out, 15,000 more than in '08 -- and we know that the second week is usually much bigger than the first (it was 50 percent greater in '08). We know the Democrats are getting out their voters -- better than four years ago, in fact. We know the Republicans are turning out much better than in '08 (a very low bar because John McCain had...
After two days, Dems have 13,000 vote lead in Clark
The numbers: D             Others            R 31,401    9,683         18,106 That's 53-31. In 2008, after two days, the total raw vote lead was 16,000, and it was 60-24. So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind. Democrats had an 83,000 raw vote lead at the end of two weeks of early voting...
How Nevada could REALLY matter
I have been writing all season how much Nevada matters in the presidential race. We have been one of a handful of battleground states all year long, and we remain a toss-up in most assessments. (I think the state leans to Obama, but that's me.) I decided to have some fun, though, with the great site 270 to win. I found two ways that Nevada really could matter. Take a look at these scenarios: 1. The first hypothetical involves President Obama winning Ohio but losing Florida, Colorado and most...
Final thoughts on first day of early voting; what to look for next
As the Democrats sound buoyant with their wide margin and the Republicans sound like Custer crowing after Little Big Horn, some more thoughts on Day One of early voting in Clark County: ---Republicans -- at least some -- are claiming the Democratic machine did not work as well in Clark because the margin is only a landslide (55-29) after the first day and not a super-landslide (60-23) as it was in '08. Well, ok. But the Democrats still turned out MORE voters than in '08 -- 3,000 more. Their...
Democrats massacre Republicans on first day of early voting in urban areas
UPDATE: Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge. So: After one day -- remember it's only one day! -- using absentees and early votes in Clark and early votes in Washoe (don't have absentees yet), the Democrats have an 11,000-vote lead statewide. Let's see where we go from here....
Why the math is so hard for Romney in Nevada
  As early voting begins today, and Republicans continue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada. Let's suppose Republicans have a 5 percentage point turnout edge over Democrats (85 percent to 80 percent) once all the votes are counted and that "other" voters turn out at an 80 percent clip (that may be high). Let's suppose 85 percent of each base votes for the nominee (it's likely to be closer to 90 percent) and let's...
Friday potpourri: Sandoval speaks Mitt's name, big rallies in Vegas on first day of early voting, LV chamber supports taxes for schools and Tom Collins gets blasted
Some nuggets to end your week: Nugget No. 1 -- Gov. Brian Sandoval, now heading Team Nevada, sent out a pitch today for the man he endorsed but never seemed enthusiastic about: "Washington is failing our state....We need to send Mitt Romney to the White House to get government out of the way of job creators, and to turn our state's economy around. Mitt is the right choice for getting our nation back on the right fiscal track." See, that wasn't so hard, Gov. Sunny. Nugget No. 2 -- SEIU and AFP,...
Crossroads puts down huge buy in Las Vegas; SuperPACS come in, too
If you don't think we matter in the presidential race and Senate matrix, consider the latest on ad buys, with a whopping one from Crossroads (the Karl Rove group) at the top: ----How big is the Crossroads buy? $300,000 on one Vegas station for one week (Oct. 24-30). Extrapolate that! ----Majority PAC (help for Rep. Shelley Berkley) put down six figures for the last week. ----Priorities USA Action, the Obama-aligned SuperPAC, put down substantial buys, North and South, for the last push. ----...
Mellman: Obama up 8 in Nevada
President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change. AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here. Is he right? We'll find out. Memo linked here.  

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