by Jon Ralston Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:17
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If you are a Democrat and worried about a red wave in Nevada, this is the section of the CNN crosstabs that should… t.co/AUpyfvhres
13 hours 7 min ago.
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Shockingly, some wealthy election deniers are supporting election denier Jim Marchant for the office that oversees… t.co/q7Tsqw82yB
13 hours 25 min ago.
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Yep. t.co/JBU0HxCpqT
13 hours 31 min ago.
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The only poll that matters... t.co/N90XGFx47L
13 hours 48 min ago.
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@Bencjacobs @burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Storey.
(Requisite shaking of fist at national media.)
13 hours 49 min ago.
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@burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive I'm agnostic.
13 hours 50 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Guys, I'll know more once early voting in Nevada starts two weeks from Saturday. But our p… t.co/HiJMaN9rwj
13 hours 54 min ago.
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"CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader"
Tell me about it!… t.co/1wFkJthNGB
14 hours 1 min ago.
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Our @s_golonka knows his stuff. Tune in! t.co/m7X775pMia
14 hours 8 min ago.
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ICYMI: Here's my discussion of the Nevada Senate race with the legendary @JudyWoodruff last night on @pbsnewshour.… t.co/qmPqIR4Ks2
14 hours 16 min ago.
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"Cortez Masto declined a request for an interview for this story."
Neither U.S. Senate candidate would do a sitdow… t.co/AxuLu2l1dS
14 hours 51 min ago.
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Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 2010, a court found Scott Ashjian of the fledgling Tea Part… t.co/Y1fHPRGCIL
15 hours 40 min ago.
As early voting begins today, and Republicans continue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada.
Let's suppose Republicans have a 5 percentage point turnout edge over Democrats (85 percent to 80 percent) once all the votes are counted and that "other" voters turn out at an 80 percent clip (that may be high). Let's suppose 85 percent of each base votes for the nominee (it's likely to be closer to 90 percent) and let's suppose the third-party candidates get 3 percent of the vote (it's unlikely to be much higher, based on history). That's a fairly conservative model.
Because of the Democrats' registration edge -- 90,000 statewide -- that means Romney would have to win all of those remaining voters by about 13 percent.
And guess what? No credible poll is showing that. Indeed, not one public poll has shown anything close to that -- even GOP-skewed Rasmussen, which had a 39-36, GOP sample (nearly impossible), had Obama up by 9 among indies. Many polls show Obama up among unaffiliated voters.
If Obama gets 90 percent of the Democratic base, and Romney does the same, the Republican would need a 15 percent win among remaining voters.
Believe me, folks, from what I have seen in recent polling and know is going on out in the field, those are very generous scenarios for Romney. And he still needs a landslide among independents to win. THIS is why that registration edge is so significant for the Democrats -- it's a firewall against underachivement among nonpartisan voters. That means Romney needs the turnout machine that worked so impressively the last two cycles to break down this cycle for the Republican standard-bearer to bust through that firewall.
I delve into this much more deeply Sunday for premium subscribers. I'll also have an analysis of early voting trends and what to look for during the next two weeks and a never-before-made-public document to show you just how good Mark Mellman was in 2010. Much more, too, including Steve Wynn's political activity, the Hispanic vote, inactive voters and, of course, The State of the Races. Lots of information....
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