by Jon Ralston Tue, 10/23/2012 - 03:34
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"The debate once again showed just how incurious he is, how unwilling he is to learn basic facts..." t.co/mJKHlWgTzF
7 hours 38 min ago.
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My take on the debate for @RGJ: This is The Rashomon Effect Election. t.co/BoBcSnytUk
10 hours 14 min ago.
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@EsotericCD Ha! Yes.
10 hours 59 min ago.
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.@RosenforNevada concedes the #nv03 race to @DannyTarkanian. t.co/o8rzO3iCCm
11 hours 1 min ago.
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@untouchablerjl @KTNV You missed it.
11 hours 29 min ago.
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Hey, Adelson News, I don't think this is the correct photo for this story about the "next president." t.co/nRvODrdD5j
11 hours 38 min ago.
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I'll be on @KTNV in a few talking about how the entire gaming industry is unified behind Sheldon Adelson's stadium. It's a beautiful story.
11 hours 56 min ago.
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@DullardMush @DevonReese1 @HeidiGansert I keep hearing that. It's very odd.
12 hours 11 min ago.
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@edwardjohnCA That is so good it's not even painful.
12 hours 11 min ago.
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@R_J_175 @bauce_man82 @EsotericCD ALSO BLOCKED.
12 hours 36 min ago.
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@stevefey Mostly.
12 hours 39 min ago.
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@bauce_man82 @EsotericCD BLOCKED
12 hours 54 min ago.
UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.)
Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County.
Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008.
The numbers in Clark for Day 3:
Democrats: 15,015 (49 percent)
Republicans: 10,219 (33 percent)
The good news for Republicans is they turned out a couple of points above their registration (remember it's 46-31, Democrats). And even though no one on either side expects this to be 2008, when Barack Obama won the state by 12, the Democrats had a much bigger lead four years ago -- 23,000 raw votes. The bad news is that the Democrats still have a robust margin -- they increased their raw vote lead to 18,000 -- perhaps an indication that the GOP Election Day edge may not have much of an impact.
With three days of data in -- or nearly a fourth of the total -- if this pace keeps up, even with a slight drop-off every day, the Democrats will have a 60,000-vote or so firewall by the end of early voting in the South. That should be enough for President Obama to win the state, unless he gets crushed among independents, who (along with third paries) are accounting for just under a fifth of the vote.
Overall Clark numbers:
Democrats 52 percent (46,416)
Republicans: 32 percent (28,325)
So that 20-point lead is 5 points above the actual registration edge for the Democrats. The Republicans are making progress, but unless they begin cutting into that margin every day, the raw vote lead will be substantial by Election Day.
In Washoe County, the Republicans actually turned out more voters for the first time -- 2,865-2,834. They need to do well in Washoe because Mitt Romney's landslide in rural Nevada won't mean much if Obama wins both urban counties.
Washoe totals (21,248 have voted):
Democrats -- 9,700, or 46 percent
Republicans -- 8,314, or 39 percent
So that 7-point lead compares to a dead heat in registration.
(I will add absentee ballot totals and rural county numbers when I get them.)
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