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Democrats massacre Republicans on first day of early voting in urban areas

by Jon Ralston 10/20/2012 | 0 comments

UPDATE: Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge.

Why the math is so hard for Romney in Nevada

by Jon Ralston 10/20/2012 | 0 comments

  As early voting begins today, and Republicans continue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada.

Friday potpourri: Sandoval speaks Mitt's name, big rallies in Vegas on first day of early voting, LV chamber supports taxes for schools and Tom Collins gets blasted

by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments

Some nuggets to end your week: Nugget No. 1 -- Gov. Brian Sandoval, now heading Team Nevada, sent out a pitch today for the man he endorsed but never seemed enthusiastic about:

Crossroads puts down huge buy in Las Vegas; SuperPACS come in, too

by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments

If you don't think we matter in the presidential race and Senate matrix, consider the latest on ad buys, with a whopping one from Crossroads (the Karl Rove group) at the top: ----How big is the Crossroads buy? $300,000 on one Vegas station for one week (Oct. 24-30). Extrapolate that! ----Majority PAC (help for Rep. Shelley Berkley) put down six figures for the last week. ----Priorities USA Action, the Obama-aligned SuperPAC, put down substantial buys, North and South, for the last push.

Mellman: Obama up 8 in Nevada

by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
File Nevada Poll Memo 10-18.docx

President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change. AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here. Is he right? We'll find out. Memo linked here.  

Republicans tout absentee ballot lead, but it's more hype than substance

by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments

Darren Littel, an RNC operative helping lead the GOP effort here, tweeted this on Thursday: "In #NV absentee ballots GOP outperforming reg numbers by 7%, Dems under performing by 2 points" Wow. That sounds huge. But, as always, context is called for. Republicans nearly always beat Democrats in absentee ballots -- they did by a few points two and four years ago. And mail ballots are a small percentage of the overall vote.

Nevada jobless rate falls to 11.8 percent, Gov. Brian Sandoval "encouraged"

by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon September 2012 Rate.pdf

The numbers: State: 11.8 percent Vegas: 11.5 percent Reno: 10.8 percent Carson: 10.9 percent Full report linked here.    

David still winning against Goliath -- Lil ole Fernley still standing in case vs. state

by Jon Ralston 10/18/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon Order Granting a Continuance.pdf

The city of Fernley, which sued the state of Nevada over tax collections, has survived the first round of litigation and attempts to dismiss the case. A judge refused to dismiss the case and allowed Fernley to proceed with discovery. The state and the Legislature, which intervened in the case involving consolidated tax collections and how they are apportioned, had tried to scuttle the case. But no dice.      

Three new polls in Nevada Senate -- two show Heller up, one shows Berkley, only the latter pollster has good track record here

by Jon Ralston 10/18/2012 | 0 comments
PDF icon 12mem1017-f NV.pdf (1).pdf

I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today. Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. They wouldn't show me the poll, but I have linked his memo, which derides other polling, here.

My column: Obama won the debate, but what is the impact on voters....in Ohio?

by Jon Ralston 10/17/2012 | 0 comments

The diverse herd, populated by bulls branded red and blue, has moved in the same direction, a stray cow or two notwithstanding: The president won the debate. I agree. But you know what? That doesn’t really matter. What matters is what those unfortunately benighted undecided voters think – and there were few of those in the hall at Hofstra on Tuesday evening. Even more so than that small universe of undecided voters, what really determines the outcome now is how Democrats and Republicans feel – the ones in Ohio, that is.

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