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If you are a Democrat and worried about a red wave in Nevada, this is the section of the CNN crosstabs that should… t.co/AUpyfvhres
13 hours 37 min ago.
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Shockingly, some wealthy election deniers are supporting election denier Jim Marchant for the office that oversees… t.co/q7Tsqw82yB
13 hours 55 min ago.
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Yep. t.co/JBU0HxCpqT
14 hours 1 min ago.
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The only poll that matters... t.co/N90XGFx47L
14 hours 17 min ago.
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@Bencjacobs @burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Storey.
(Requisite shaking of fist at national media.)
14 hours 19 min ago.
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@burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive I'm agnostic.
14 hours 19 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Guys, I'll know more once early voting in Nevada starts two weeks from Saturday. But our p… t.co/HiJMaN9rwj
14 hours 23 min ago.
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"CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader"
Tell me about it!… t.co/1wFkJthNGB
14 hours 31 min ago.
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Our @s_golonka knows his stuff. Tune in! t.co/m7X775pMia
14 hours 37 min ago.
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ICYMI: Here's my discussion of the Nevada Senate race with the legendary @JudyWoodruff last night on @pbsnewshour.… t.co/qmPqIR4Ks2
14 hours 46 min ago.
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"Cortez Masto declined a request for an interview for this story."
Neither U.S. Senate candidate would do a sitdow… t.co/AxuLu2l1dS
15 hours 20 min ago.
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Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 2010, a court found Scott Ashjian of the fledgling Tea Part… t.co/Y1fHPRGCIL
16 hours 10 min ago.
BLOG
Democrats massacre Republicans on first day of early voting in urban areas
by Jon Ralston 10/20/2012 | 0 comments
UPDATE: Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge.
Why the math is so hard for Romney in Nevada
by Jon Ralston 10/20/2012 | 0 comments
As early voting begins today, and Republicans continue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada.
Friday potpourri: Sandoval speaks Mitt's name, big rallies in Vegas on first day of early voting, LV chamber supports taxes for schools and Tom Collins gets blasted
by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
Some nuggets to end your week: Nugget No. 1 -- Gov. Brian Sandoval, now heading Team Nevada, sent out a pitch today for the man he endorsed but never seemed enthusiastic about:
Crossroads puts down huge buy in Las Vegas; SuperPACS come in, too
by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
If you don't think we matter in the presidential race and Senate matrix, consider the latest on ad buys, with a whopping one from Crossroads (the Karl Rove group) at the top: ----How big is the Crossroads buy? $300,000 on one Vegas station for one week (Oct. 24-30). Extrapolate that! ----Majority PAC (help for Rep. Shelley Berkley) put down six figures for the last week. ----Priorities USA Action, the Obama-aligned SuperPAC, put down substantial buys, North and South, for the last push.
Mellman: Obama up 8 in Nevada
by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change. AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here. Is he right? We'll find out. Memo linked here.
Republicans tout absentee ballot lead, but it's more hype than substance
by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
Darren Littel, an RNC operative helping lead the GOP effort here, tweeted this on Thursday: "In #NV absentee ballots GOP outperforming reg numbers by 7%, Dems under performing by 2 points" Wow. That sounds huge. But, as always, context is called for. Republicans nearly always beat Democrats in absentee ballots -- they did by a few points two and four years ago. And mail ballots are a small percentage of the overall vote.
Nevada jobless rate falls to 11.8 percent, Gov. Brian Sandoval "encouraged"
by Jon Ralston 10/19/2012 | 0 comments
The numbers: State: 11.8 percent Vegas: 11.5 percent Reno: 10.8 percent Carson: 10.9 percent Full report linked here.
David still winning against Goliath -- Lil ole Fernley still standing in case vs. state
by Jon Ralston 10/18/2012 | 0 comments
The city of Fernley, which sued the state of Nevada over tax collections, has survived the first round of litigation and attempts to dismiss the case. A judge refused to dismiss the case and allowed Fernley to proceed with discovery. The state and the Legislature, which intervened in the case involving consolidated tax collections and how they are apportioned, had tried to scuttle the case. But no dice.
Three new polls in Nevada Senate -- two show Heller up, one shows Berkley, only the latter pollster has good track record here
by Jon Ralston 10/18/2012 | 0 comments
I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today. Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. They wouldn't show me the poll, but I have linked his memo, which derides other polling, here.
My column: Obama won the debate, but what is the impact on voters....in Ohio?
by Jon Ralston 10/17/2012 | 0 comments
The diverse herd, populated by bulls branded red and blue, has moved in the same direction, a stray cow or two notwithstanding: The president won the debate. I agree. But you know what? That doesn’t really matter. What matters is what those unfortunately benighted undecided voters think – and there were few of those in the hall at Hofstra on Tuesday evening. Even more so than that small universe of undecided voters, what really determines the outcome now is how Democrats and Republicans feel – the ones in Ohio, that is.