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Too many Democratic deserters cost Berkley a U.S. Senate seat

by Jon Ralston 11/07/2012 | 0 comments

I wonder, as she was riding in a gondola down the Grand Canal four years ago, perhaps gazing up at her luxury (but discounted) room, if Rep. Shelley Berkley ever thought: “This might be a problem.” I doubt it. But that congressional trip, which she led, with that ill-fated Venezia sojourn, may have cost her a chance at a U.S. Senate seat. Or not.

The five things we know about Election 2012 in Nevada

by Jon Ralston 11/07/2012 | 0 comments

I tend to shy away from the “look at what we learned” thumbsuckers the day after an election. Overall themes often obscure underlying dynamics of individual races. The obvious often mashes the subtle. The results tell a story, but usually only part of it. There is a lot to say about what happened in Nevada on Tuesday – today and later – but only a few things are crystal clear: 1.     Registration matters 2.     The Republican Party is irrelevant 3.     The Hispanic vote here is a growing and potent force 4.     Labor matters

Reid: I love Dean Heller, always have, always will

by Jon Ralston 11/07/2012 | 0 comments

No human has more chutzpah than Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and he showed it again this morning during a DC gaggle with reporters. Here is his exchange with the Las Vegas Review-Journal's capital reporter, Steve Tetreault:

What to look for tonight

by Jon Ralston 11/06/2012 | 0 comments

A handy guide for Election Night: Remember 70 percent of the vote will be known very early in the evening. Although we don't yet know what Election Day turnout will be like -- I estimate about 300,000 people will vote, about two-thirds in Clark County -- we will know some thing pretty early.

Whose voters are they anyhow?

by Jon Ralston 11/05/2012 | 0 comments

One of the reasons the Republicans remain optimistic about Mitt Romney winning Nevada is that they claim they have banked high-propensity voters who will swamp the Democrats on Tuesday because the opposition is turning out its inveterates and will have little left for Election Day. This always seemed odd to me for this reason: Wouldn't a lot of high-propensity voters cast ballots early because they are, you know, high-propensity voters?

Save the last poll for me: PPP says Obama, Heller lead in Nevada

by Jon Ralston 11/05/2012 | 0 comments

In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada. That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor. Some thoughts:

Poll results: Obama will win Clark County by huge margin

by Jon Ralston 11/05/2012 | 0 comments

That's what site readers say. Largest number yet answered -- almost 1,000. Thanks for participating. A new poll is up! The question: What will the president's margin of victory be in Clark County?  

Obama will win the state, Heller will barely squeak by, Horsford takes CD4 and the GOP will take the state Senate

by Jon Ralston 11/04/2012 | 0 comments

  And I thought Reid-Angle was hard. For two years, I have rested on my laurels after ignoring the public polls, trusting my reporting and gut and predicting Harry Reid would defeat Sharron Angle. Now it’s time to once again leap into the oracular breach, with an even more difficult U.S. Senate race (yes, it’s harder to call this one based on data I have seen) and a state Senate matrix that is as blurry as can be.

Democrats end with 71,000-voter lead in Clark, near dead heat in Washoe

by Jon Ralston 11/03/2012 | 0 comments

UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead. And the GOP only has a 1.1 percent statewide voter turnout advantage so far. The Republicans did a massive Tuesday effort for Romney to win. A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.

Adelson, Wynn, Rove and me -- Just imagine it!

by Jon Ralston 11/02/2012 | 0 comments

  I ran into Steve Wynn, Sheldon Adelson and Karl Rove the other night at SW Steakhouse. They generously offered to let me sit down and tape their conversation. That’s just the kind of guys they are. Here’s what transpired:

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