by Jon Ralston Mon, 11/05/2012 - 14:12
-
@joeygilbertinc Also, remember Gilbert is in second place in most primary polls. The man who says COVID is fake and… t.co/41OYynEw0j
15 hours 50 min ago.
-
The @joeygilbertinc for gov event is occurring in rural NV w/ election denier Robert Beadles and disgraced conspira… t.co/KbArs0TKSp
15 hours 53 min ago.
-
@jlnevadasmith Here are some of the GOP luminaries who have endorsed Leo Blundo, who has been obviously unfit for o… t.co/IYs7TgsJRg
16 hours 55 min ago.
-
Don't just read this startling column by @jlnevadasmith about a Nye County commissioner who is clearly unfit to ser… t.co/uaEieYClGr
18 hours 45 min ago.
-
"We have a “citizen Legislature” that, in many respects, is unrepresentative of the citizens it governs, and of whi… t.co/vicDhj2IhS
19 hours 7 min ago.
-
"NV is among the top five hardest-hit states, experiencing at least a 50 percent decrease in formula supply, and ev… t.co/350cCowcwh
19 hours 28 min ago.
-
The timing couldn't be better for this deeply reported and researched explainer on rent control in Nevada by… t.co/D0TurXce9f
20 hours 5 min ago.
-
I accept Ken’s explanation.
It’s still…odd.
Now about Katie for Joey… t.co/aMUJO1uKJi
1 day 10 hours ago.
-
“Literal”
I have a horse?
And it’s high?
As I sad, this guy… t.co/tGhzzuozab
1 day 10 hours ago.
-
The GOP in NV thinks Lincoln debated Frederick Douglass!
Check out the pic.
(@jlnevadasmith pointed this out Fri.… t.co/AlqgQzHfk4
1 day 10 hours ago.
-
Unpacked house of election deniers, including GOP candidates for LG and SOS and the GOP state chairman, for Bossie'… t.co/S9iCzcb43E
1 day 11 hours ago.
-
@VoteFiore I wonder why @AdamLaxalt would have endorsed this guy instead of "Lady Trump" and why fellow City Counci… t.co/jGWbpBc6TS
1 day 12 hours ago.
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada.
That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor.
Some thoughts:
►The survey showed 51-47 for the president and 48-46 for Heller. The partisan breakdown -- 43-38, Democrats -- is sllightly less than the 7-point registration and may be an accurate reflection of the electorate because of a slight GOP turnout advantage. This is why I have long said the Republican need a huge turnout edge for Mitt Romney to have a chance here.
►The poll also has a 14 percent Latino sample -- it has been 15 percent the last two cycles -- and a 56-44, female-male, split, which seems a little off (it's usually about 52-48).
►The survey shows Obama (11 points) and Berkley (8 points) well ahead in early voting. There are no regional breakdowns, but that would presume both have double-digit leads in Clark. (We will know how close this is early Tuesday evening when all of those early/mail ballots are tabulated.) Those seem a little high to me, and the Election Day reversals (16 percent for Romney -- 56-40 -- and 30 percent for Heller--60-30) are huge and presume a GOP-dominated Tuesday turnout.
►Both Obama (66-32) and Berkley (62-31) have huge advantages among Hispanics. (Some polls show it even higher, as does some field data I am privy to.) Those numbers, if right, show how both Democrats could easily win. Berkley, especially, could benefit from a huge Latino edge, especially because earlier surveys showed she and Heller fairly close among Latinos.
►Berkley's favorability (39-55) is so much worse than Heller's (47-42) that she either will lose because of it or enough Democrats are holding their noses and voting for her topush her to victory. The last person with those kinds of unfavorables to win a U.S. Senate seat was a long time ago -- Harry Reid in 2010....
►There is no huge gender gap in either race, according to the poll. Obama is up 53-46 among women and among men (50-49), which seems odd. Berkley is barely up among women (48-47) and loses men (50-44). If this female sample is too high....
The full poll is here.
Comments: