by Jon Ralston Mon, 11/05/2012 - 14:12
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If you are a Democrat and worried about a red wave in Nevada, this is the section of the CNN crosstabs that should… t.co/AUpyfvhres
12 hours 1 min ago.
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Shockingly, some wealthy election deniers are supporting election denier Jim Marchant for the office that oversees… t.co/q7Tsqw82yB
12 hours 19 min ago.
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Yep. t.co/JBU0HxCpqT
12 hours 25 min ago.
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The only poll that matters... t.co/N90XGFx47L
12 hours 42 min ago.
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@Bencjacobs @burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Storey.
(Requisite shaking of fist at national media.)
12 hours 43 min ago.
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@burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive I'm agnostic.
12 hours 44 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Guys, I'll know more once early voting in Nevada starts two weeks from Saturday. But our p… t.co/HiJMaN9rwj
12 hours 48 min ago.
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"CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader"
Tell me about it!… t.co/1wFkJthNGB
12 hours 55 min ago.
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Our @s_golonka knows his stuff. Tune in! t.co/m7X775pMia
13 hours 2 min ago.
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ICYMI: Here's my discussion of the Nevada Senate race with the legendary @JudyWoodruff last night on @pbsnewshour.… t.co/qmPqIR4Ks2
13 hours 10 min ago.
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"Cortez Masto declined a request for an interview for this story."
Neither U.S. Senate candidate would do a sitdow… t.co/AxuLu2l1dS
13 hours 45 min ago.
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Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 2010, a court found Scott Ashjian of the fledgling Tea Part… t.co/Y1fHPRGCIL
14 hours 34 min ago.
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada.
That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor.
Some thoughts:
►The survey showed 51-47 for the president and 48-46 for Heller. The partisan breakdown -- 43-38, Democrats -- is sllightly less than the 7-point registration and may be an accurate reflection of the electorate because of a slight GOP turnout advantage. This is why I have long said the Republican need a huge turnout edge for Mitt Romney to have a chance here.
►The poll also has a 14 percent Latino sample -- it has been 15 percent the last two cycles -- and a 56-44, female-male, split, which seems a little off (it's usually about 52-48).
►The survey shows Obama (11 points) and Berkley (8 points) well ahead in early voting. There are no regional breakdowns, but that would presume both have double-digit leads in Clark. (We will know how close this is early Tuesday evening when all of those early/mail ballots are tabulated.) Those seem a little high to me, and the Election Day reversals (16 percent for Romney -- 56-40 -- and 30 percent for Heller--60-30) are huge and presume a GOP-dominated Tuesday turnout.
►Both Obama (66-32) and Berkley (62-31) have huge advantages among Hispanics. (Some polls show it even higher, as does some field data I am privy to.) Those numbers, if right, show how both Democrats could easily win. Berkley, especially, could benefit from a huge Latino edge, especially because earlier surveys showed she and Heller fairly close among Latinos.
►Berkley's favorability (39-55) is so much worse than Heller's (47-42) that she either will lose because of it or enough Democrats are holding their noses and voting for her topush her to victory. The last person with those kinds of unfavorables to win a U.S. Senate seat was a long time ago -- Harry Reid in 2010....
►There is no huge gender gap in either race, according to the poll. Obama is up 53-46 among women and among men (50-49), which seems odd. Berkley is barely up among women (48-47) and loses men (50-44). If this female sample is too high....
The full poll is here.
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