by Jon Ralston Mon, 11/05/2012 - 14:12
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Sands, sans Las Vegas, via @howardstutz. t.co/LbUcoady75
7 hours 49 min ago.
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Our @TheNVIndy team has the breakdown of which legislators raised the most as part of our Follow the Money series.… t.co/yyCr31hQXt
8 hours 12 min ago.
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NV should be going first for obvious reasons -- diversity, true battleground, more fun than IA and NH combined.
Bu… t.co/MCGyRs1MtF
1 day 8 hours ago.
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Same nonsense NH pulled during the 2008 cycle, thundering about how no one will tell it when to set its primary. Th… t.co/ggdjNAqR8f
1 day 8 hours ago.
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NH is not representative of anything at all except a tiny place with four electoral votes that thinks it is are is… t.co/nUKba2BThe
1 day 8 hours ago.
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So the senator from the Be First or Cry state weighs in on new DNC calendar, saying the place with the whitest priv… t.co/r8vnYRHMhW
1 day 8 hours ago.
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From this @rjlambe memo on the new DNC calendar, which shows why #WeMatter:
t.co/SYZWxmOuLd t.co/Nhs38GW2o8
1 day 9 hours ago.
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"Nevada's week of in-person early voting starts 10 days before the primary election, and mail ballots will drop eve… t.co/dBvs3z5qdP
1 day 9 hours ago.
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"For the first time in 50 years, NH and IA will no longer have a stranglehold on the start of the presidential nomi… t.co/2ZRAgPofuc
1 day 9 hours ago.
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@STEMEDUCAT0R They changed that already.
1 day 9 hours ago.
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Our woman in DC on the new DNC nominating calendar...
via @birenbomb t.co/pmLr5exx6b
1 day 10 hours ago.
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Aaaand..the choreographed happy statements from NV Dems and both senators.
And the senators have a message clearly… t.co/vuRysa751v
1 day 11 hours ago.
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada.
That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor.
Some thoughts:
►The survey showed 51-47 for the president and 48-46 for Heller. The partisan breakdown -- 43-38, Democrats -- is sllightly less than the 7-point registration and may be an accurate reflection of the electorate because of a slight GOP turnout advantage. This is why I have long said the Republican need a huge turnout edge for Mitt Romney to have a chance here.
►The poll also has a 14 percent Latino sample -- it has been 15 percent the last two cycles -- and a 56-44, female-male, split, which seems a little off (it's usually about 52-48).
►The survey shows Obama (11 points) and Berkley (8 points) well ahead in early voting. There are no regional breakdowns, but that would presume both have double-digit leads in Clark. (We will know how close this is early Tuesday evening when all of those early/mail ballots are tabulated.) Those seem a little high to me, and the Election Day reversals (16 percent for Romney -- 56-40 -- and 30 percent for Heller--60-30) are huge and presume a GOP-dominated Tuesday turnout.
►Both Obama (66-32) and Berkley (62-31) have huge advantages among Hispanics. (Some polls show it even higher, as does some field data I am privy to.) Those numbers, if right, show how both Democrats could easily win. Berkley, especially, could benefit from a huge Latino edge, especially because earlier surveys showed she and Heller fairly close among Latinos.
►Berkley's favorability (39-55) is so much worse than Heller's (47-42) that she either will lose because of it or enough Democrats are holding their noses and voting for her topush her to victory. The last person with those kinds of unfavorables to win a U.S. Senate seat was a long time ago -- Harry Reid in 2010....
►There is no huge gender gap in either race, according to the poll. Obama is up 53-46 among women and among men (50-49), which seems odd. Berkley is barely up among women (48-47) and loses men (50-44). If this female sample is too high....
The full poll is here.
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