Two new polls show Obama ahead; one shows Senate race a dead heat

Some quick thoughts on the new Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys for Nevada released today (caveat: both are robopollers and I am still a bit of a robophobe):

Rasmussen: 50-48, Obama

The usually GOP-skewed pollster had a better sample than usual, with 40-35, Democratic edge. His previous surveys here have had GOP advantages, not reflecting registration (D+7) or likley turnout. This one is much closer to reality, inlcuding a reasonable number of minority respondents (32 percent).

But Rasmussen did have this odd line: "The incumbent currently holds a 51% to 47% edge among the 35% of Nevada voters who say they have already voted." Oh? This was taken Tuesday night, and not even 20 percent had voted.

As Rasmussen polls go, though, this is better than most. Best praise I can heap here, folks.

PPP, 51-47, Obama

This pollster gets an unfair rap as a Democratic-skewed operator (the firm actually was skewed toward GOP Senate candidates in 2010!).

The internals here look pretty good -- 42-36, Democratic, and 19 percent Hispanic (maybe a tad high).

Here's what's most interesting:

"Obama is already well on his way to winning Nevada based on early votes that have been cast in the week. Among those who say they've already voted he has a 61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between now and election day."

Remember what I have been telling you about the math of those numbers (robopolling caveats still in mind).

And this: "Obama's leading based on advantages of 69/28 with Hispanics, 82/12 with African-Americans, 54/44 with women, and 58/39 with young voters. Romney's ahead with men (50/48), whites (57/42), and seniors (53/45). He also has a 53/44 advantage with independents but he'd probably need to take them by a wider margin than that to overcome the Democratic registration edge in the state."

That says it pretty well, folks.

Finally, in the U.S. Senate race, PPP has it a dead heat, 44-44.

Rep. Shelley Berkley's unfavorables are up to 53 percent, with Sen. Dean Heller's at 47 percent. But note this: She is up 14 percent with early voters.

This one could be tight. And if Obama doesn't win the state by more than 4, we are going to be up very late -- and Heller may pull it out if Romney loses and doesn't drag him down too much.