Poll: Brower up by 10 over Leslie

A survey conducted for Greg Brower's state Senate re-election bid indicates he is pulling away from challenger Sheila Leslie as he becomes better known.

The numbers: 50 percent for Republican Brower to 40 percent for Democrat Leslie.

The poll, conducted last week by a robopoll outfit, had a huge sample -- 1,097 voters -- so the margin of error is quite small (3 percent). All the usual caveats apply with robopolling. But I have seen the entire polling instrument and the internals make sense.

It is interesting that Mitt Romney trails Brower in the presidential ballot test here -- by 5 percentage points. (If Romney wins Washoe by 5 points -- not impossible -- he could easily still lose the state.) And Gov. Brian Sandoval remains...a juggernaut, as you will see below.

My guess is the Democrats will be skeptical -- I am a highly skilled guesser. But if Brower really is up by 10 now, this race is over.

Here is a memo from the pollster.

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Republican Greg Brower leads Democratic challenger Sheila Leslie by 10 points in one of the most important swing districts in the state. That’s according to a survey conducted this week by Silverstate Analytics among 1,097 likely voters in State Senate District 15.

While no political party has a clear registration advantage in the district (38% of voters are registered Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 23% other parties), the survey results indicate that voters in the district may be favoring Republicans this election cycle:

-       Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by five points among likely voters (50% would vote for Romney and 45% would vote for Obama if the election were held today).

-       63% of respondents had a favorable impression of Governor Brian Sandoval (R), with 26% having an unfavorable impression.

-       The State Senate ballot question stands at 50% Brower, 40% Leslie.

While Sheila Leslie displays slightly better name ID than her Republican opponent, minor-party voters break for Greg Brower by nine points (47% Brower, 38% Leslie). In districts with closely-split party registration, independent and minor party voters can easily sway the election.

Additionally, more Democratic voters in the district crossed party lines when deciding how to vote than Republicans did; Brower picked up 16% of Democratic votes while Leslie received just 8% of the vote among Republicans.

The survey was fielded by Silverstate Analytics, on the evenings of September 25-26 using automated polling methodology. Responses were weighted to ensure proportional representation to likely voters with respect to age, party registration, gender, and city of residence. For results based on this sample size, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling is +/- 3.0%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and other practical difficulties in conducting telephone surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.