by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/17/2012 - 16:02
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Not exactly the stuff that dreams are made of. t.co/nulXZc191d
16 hours 7 min ago.
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@seangamble Understandable mistake!
16 hours 8 min ago.
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Yes, I'm biased because I've known him for more than 30 yrs and he's a close friend. But @MajorCBS is also one of t… t.co/A5jmED09j4
17 hours 29 min ago.
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@billingspg @PunchbowlNews Never heard of it.
18 hours 39 min ago.
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I haven't read Playbook yet today. Anything in it?
18 hours 40 min ago.
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All your vaccine questions answered in this constantly updating Q&A. t.co/YTBVAvHmrm
18 hours 46 min ago.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new survey by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove taken this week.
The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.
Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument (memo linked here), the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in Nevada before.
The poll actually has a low Hispanic sample, which is very ominous for the GOP. My guess: Based on the Democratic registration surge and other data I have seen, a 6- or 7-point lead for the president makes sense -- at least now.
Highlights:
-President Obama's lead is largely a result of a formidable gender gap. While he's tied among men, he leads among women voters 54%-40%. This lead will be difficult for Mitt Romney to overcome with just a few weeks before election day.
-Nevadans are more likely to believe that Romney, not Obama, will raise taxes on the middle class. This is usually a point of strength for Republicans, but Obama has made this an advantage.
·Obama’s edge can be explained by his advantage on several key traits. By 11%, Nevada voters are more likely to believe that Obama, not Romney "fights for people like you." By 6%, Nevada voters are more likely to trust Obama more than Romney to a decision based on what is right for the country in the long term, not just for today.
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