New poll shows Obama leads in Nevada by 7

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new survey by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove taken this week.

The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.

Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument (memo linked here), the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in Nevada before.

The poll actually has a low Hispanic sample, which is very ominous for the GOP. My guess: Based on the Democratic registration surge and other data I have seen, a 6- or 7-point lead for the president makes sense -- at least now.


-President Obama's lead is largely a result of a formidable gender gap. While he's tied among men, he leads among women voters 54%-40%. This lead will be difficult for Mitt Romney to overcome with just a few weeks before election day.

-Nevadans are more likely to believe that Romney, not Obama, will raise taxes on the middle class.  This is usually a point of strength for Republicans, but Obama has made this an advantage.

·Obama’s edge can be explained by his advantage on several key traits. By 11%, Nevada voters are more likely to believe that Obama, not Romney "fights for people like you."  By 6%, Nevada voters are more likely to trust Obama more than Romney to a decision based on what is right for the country in the long term, not just for today.