by Jon Ralston Mon, 10/29/2012 - 15:47
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@internalaudit67 That's my point.
6 hours 40 min ago.
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The NV GOP is going after the media in its latest genius mail piece.
1. I prefer the plural for media.
2. Are you i… t.co/Q7X8EhMDL0
6 hours 48 min ago.
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Bars are open in Vegas again, and the incomparable @JeffScheid has the photos. t.co/II2A1UkuBf
7 hours 49 min ago.
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@Tephywashere I'm sorry. Good luck.
8 hours 7 min ago.
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@queenthiab That's because they haven't been mailed yet.
8 hours 37 min ago.
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The pandemic is over. t.co/huktjqR4X2
8 hours 45 min ago.
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"The proposed initiative would explicitly prohibit a physician from performing an abortion on an unmarried and unem… t.co/9MCjA5yaSh
9 hours 18 sec ago.
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@JeremyRMarsh I'll get back to you.
9 hours 1 min ago.
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@feline_cannon Yes.
9 hours 9 min ago.
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@midnightminxx @VegasGal2000 Oct. 5.
9 hours 16 min ago.
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Check that: They are mailing Thursday.
Time is a flat circle.
Or whatever. t.co/e2yiEMI3h3
9 hours 16 min ago.
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@CAGOPUnknown 37K
9 hours 18 min ago.
President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 6 points in Nevada and Sen. Dean Heller has a 1-point lead over Rep. Shelley Berkley, according to a new poll taken over the weekend.
The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove for Project New America/US Action, was of 500 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. (I have seen the poll but was not given permission to post it.)
Obama is up 49 percent to 43 percent in the survey. Among the 23 percent who answered they had voted early, Obama has an 8 percentage point edge. (The Democratic statewide edge in early/mail ballots is about 8 percentage points.)
Obama is leading Romney among independents in the poll by 51 percent to 40 percent. If that sub-group number is accurate, Romney is dead in Nevada.
In the U.S. Senate race, Heller is up, 44 percent to 43 percent. Among those who have voted early, Berkley leads, 45-43. If this is true, it's going to be a long night Tuesday. Recount anyone?
A couple of notes on the sample for Republicans already wailing this is a Democratic poll:
The partisan breakdown is: 36 percent of the sample are registered Republicans, 42 percent are registered Democrats, and 23 percent are not affiliated with either party. The Democrats actually have a 7 percent registration lead, so this assumes a slight GOP turnout advantage. Looks as if they will need a much bigger one to turn these numbers around.
Grove also has only 12 percent Hispanics in the mix. That would seem to be a low estimate. I have heard some pessimistic Democrats say it may not get to 15 percent again, but it's hard to argue that 12 percent is anything but a very conservative estimate.
Bottom line: Grove has done work in Nevada and knows the state. While any pollster can produce bad data, if this one is right, there is almost no way for Romney to win Nevada.
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