by Jon Ralston Mon, 10/29/2012 - 15:47
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Wait, a heartwarming family story about a well-respected lawyer who is running for the right reasons as opposed to… t.co/ERBHX8bTqw
14 hours 27 min ago.
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ICYMI, your must-read of the day. t.co/6URvyDl8gL
17 hours 14 min ago.
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i don't recall approving this junket... t.co/AMz5kY48iu
18 hours 15 min ago.
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@TheRealHoarse Or you could click on the link right there with the quote! Just a thought.
23 hours 4 min ago.
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“The irregularities are such that the media’s declaration that Joe Biden won is wrong and President Trump is indeed… t.co/MkKlh4Pr5r
23 hours 17 min ago.
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@AdamLaxalt "Network data purportedly obtained from Clark County...were presented at an August 2021 election fraud… t.co/23R1SskLVK
23 hours 19 min ago.
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"..firm’s investigators were only allowed to do a cursory examination of machinery, the person said, and Binnall’s… t.co/3uAkOa9xb5
23 hours 20 min ago.
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For the love of God:
"Binnall hired SullivanStrickler to forensically examine election systems in Clark County aft… t.co/hXIul2Obp6
23 hours 22 min ago.
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But he's willing to negotiate for support!
Joey vs. Joe continues.
Problem for GOP in November or meaningless sid… t.co/tvY3GraOD4
23 hours 38 min ago.
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“[The main lesson] is to ensure that stigma is not present. Even though we cannot avoid the presence of the stigma,… t.co/olNfTmiLXY
1 day 14 min ago.
President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 6 points in Nevada and Sen. Dean Heller has a 1-point lead over Rep. Shelley Berkley, according to a new poll taken over the weekend.
The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove for Project New America/US Action, was of 500 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. (I have seen the poll but was not given permission to post it.)
Obama is up 49 percent to 43 percent in the survey. Among the 23 percent who answered they had voted early, Obama has an 8 percentage point edge. (The Democratic statewide edge in early/mail ballots is about 8 percentage points.)
Obama is leading Romney among independents in the poll by 51 percent to 40 percent. If that sub-group number is accurate, Romney is dead in Nevada.
In the U.S. Senate race, Heller is up, 44 percent to 43 percent. Among those who have voted early, Berkley leads, 45-43. If this is true, it's going to be a long night Tuesday. Recount anyone?
A couple of notes on the sample for Republicans already wailing this is a Democratic poll:
The partisan breakdown is: 36 percent of the sample are registered Republicans, 42 percent are registered Democrats, and 23 percent are not affiliated with either party. The Democrats actually have a 7 percent registration lead, so this assumes a slight GOP turnout advantage. Looks as if they will need a much bigger one to turn these numbers around.
Grove also has only 12 percent Hispanics in the mix. That would seem to be a low estimate. I have heard some pessimistic Democrats say it may not get to 15 percent again, but it's hard to argue that 12 percent is anything but a very conservative estimate.
Bottom line: Grove has done work in Nevada and knows the state. While any pollster can produce bad data, if this one is right, there is almost no way for Romney to win Nevada.
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