by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
-
I'm sitting in Adelson No. 1. Wasn't that said in The French Connection? t.co/GEk8XOCnEm
34 min 41 sec ago.
-
@R_J_175 Influential. From different ends of political spectrum, too.
51 min 27 sec ago.
-
Whoa: The NV Taxpayers Association says no to the stadium. And with lots of reasons. t.co/TSqWo3GrL8
54 min 21 sec ago.
-
So w/less than 3 wks until early voting, the special is up in the air. Watch the Sands fire up an ad campaign to sell, provide cover. 3/3
1 hour 36 min ago.
-
Also clear the votes are not there to pass the stadium plan sent to lawmakers. And that means neither Republican nor Dem votes are there. 2/
1 hour 37 min ago.
-
Meeting between @GovSandoval and #nvleg leaders over. Still no consensus on when special should occur -- before or after Yom Kippur. 1/
1 hour 38 min ago.
-
@jayrosen_nyu I can't believe this is still being....debated.
2 hours 34 min ago.
-
@guypbenson You might enjoy this, too:
t.co/0sjB08s9iS
2 hours 34 min ago.
-
@guypbenson Be fair! "No Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one."
2 hours 35 min ago.
-
By the way, @dannytarkanian's campaign manager is so familiar w/those northern moderators that he spelled @RayHagarNV's name wrong. 3X.
2 hours 43 min ago.
-
.@Koufish pens column for Bay Area paper saying there are 11 hurdles to Raiders move to Vegas.… t.co/wf4YhXAZER
2 hours 47 min ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
Comments: