by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
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"I was the only federal candidate in Southern Nevada that supported Donald Trump to the end of the campaign." t.co/9fcFuWyiSK
17 hours 24 min ago.
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Well, look what came in the mail today. It's campaign season already in NV as the GOP tries to recall three state s… t.co/IFp5F1iBmI
17 hours 56 min ago.
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Not enough Nazis out today. Sad! t.co/leBtp2GIXZ
19 hours 55 min ago.
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Adelson columnist who introed @dannytarkanian mocked:
@SenDeanHeller
Gerald Ford
Mitt Romney
John McCain
Bob Dole
20 hours 8 min ago.
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The Washington Examiner posted video of the Tark rally and with a great headline for him. t.co/d1uJoACZwo
20 hours 25 min ago.
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@EsotericCD @jpodhoretz @justkarl @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom It is terrible w/a mixed-up message. But worth it… t.co/TVInl0j0m2
20 hours 47 min ago.
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@justkarl @jpodhoretz @EsotericCD @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom This is correct.
20 hours 49 min ago.
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@EsotericCD @justkarl @jpodhoretz @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom I figured it was because Decision Desk tracked To… t.co/8GeNep3paK
20 hours 53 min ago.
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Please be nice. t.co/DNcVVf0FyZ
20 hours 56 min ago.
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Comedian says North Korea should bomb Reno.
Reno fights back.
Comedian then suggests NK bomb...Buffalo! Now I'm mad.
t.co/r1tkxy1Uz0
21 hours 26 min ago.
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@jpodhoretz @ForecasterEnten I was going to send you that scene!
21 hours 40 min ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
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