by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
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@Bencjacobs @byrdinator Woody Allen deserved an Oscar for that, Ben.
9 hours 38 min ago.
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Here's @JackieValley's updated story on @ClarkCountySch's reopening plan, which surely will irritate people on both… t.co/GLBSz8vO5T
10 hours 53 min ago.
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This is the second time that Nevada lawmakers are considering a joint resolution on amending a Nevada ERA into the… t.co/XQuU9q7tAa
11 hours 33 min ago.
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As the song goes:
School's in...right before summer. t.co/WcKwpUnx9J
12 hours 25 min ago.
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@igorbobic @seungminkim Sure, just ignore that the senator is wearing her mask incorrectly and dangerously.
Lede buried.
Damn MSM!
13 hours 16 min ago.
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Question from high-schooler to teacher in civics class:
"Why can't they send 98 of the senators home because Joe M… t.co/8tQZr6nrVF
13 hours 24 min ago.
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@WryWrichard Thanks so much, Dick!
13 hours 32 min ago.
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@michaelcratliff Some think of their pets the way they think of....
13 hours 39 min ago.
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Almost nothing gets people going more than their pets. t.co/jzv0lDW3pX
13 hours 41 min ago.
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Lovely. t.co/TvANdq1dKR
13 hours 44 min ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
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