by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
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I should clarify: I meant candidate for state or local office in NV. Broidy also gave to @Tell_Michelle_ , who is r… t.co/y9b16WQNcF
4 hours 22 min ago.
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You should read this great Kevin Williamson piece unless you want to prove his point: "Without credible journalism,… t.co/az3GHtEQxA
5 hours 28 min ago.
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If this ever gets on TV, it will leave a mark. t.co/SqL2AgN6QW
5 hours 59 min ago.
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The school board is impressive. t.co/PANYV31ItB
6 hours 27 min ago.
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“I don’t think any of us realistically thought that we’d be here to review a report that clearly violates Nevada la… t.co/65Z0fCeGM3
6 hours 47 min ago.
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Rudy's on a train to nowhere, halfway down the line
He don't want to get there, but he needs time. t.co/DOOgH20jy5
7 hours 11 min ago.
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I repeat again: Only one NV candidate, @adamlaxalt, took money from Broidy, who maxed out to him. Team Laxalt refus… t.co/WE4fVt4y7Z
7 hours 42 min ago.
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@justinjm1 Sure he does....
19 hours 58 min ago.
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@justinjm1 He could have done both.
20 hours 2 min ago.
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Sounds like some serious locker-room talk between Trump and Putin.
"Mr. President, what was the context in which y… t.co/7fVp53jltB
20 hours 10 min ago.
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Good job leaking, House Repubs! t.co/GRZMd25FzS
20 hours 24 min ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
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