by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
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This is a monumental achievement for NV.
Sure, we've has female speakers and African-American leaders in the Senat… t.co/5byoUmFtpv
13 hours 3 min ago.
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Read this whole thread and follow all of our reporters covering the Nevada legislative session that begins today.… t.co/vF8Jz8YFY4
16 hours 12 min ago.
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She gets me, she really gets me. t.co/Ng283WlB7M
18 hours 6 min ago.
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The #WeMatter presidential primary is exactly one year from today, according to schedule approved by the DNC over t… t.co/Ozu4Ej5Y7H
19 hours 28 min ago.
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Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 1933, "Home Means Nevada" was formally adopted as NV's stat… t.co/7hE4MgDAqr
20 hours 57 min ago.
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#SITN
The first step towards recovery, New Hampshire, is acceptance of a new hashtag and state motto.
Be First or… t.co/hotl8Isu0m
1 day 13 hours ago.
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"In reality, however, there are no wild mustangs in NV — only feral ones. Additionally, as broadly as SB90 is writt… t.co/lIEIiNFvsH
1 day 13 hours ago.
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Our @jlnevadasmith with perspective on the governor's appointment to arguably the most important state board of a j… t.co/XjhjjSs6PJ
1 day 14 hours ago.
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Sands, sans Las Vegas, via @howardstutz. t.co/LbUcoady75
1 day 14 hours ago.
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Our @TheNVIndy team has the breakdown of which legislators raised the most as part of our Follow the Money series.… t.co/yyCr31hQXt
1 day 15 hours ago.
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NV should be going first for obvious reasons -- diversity, true battleground, more fun than IA and NH combined.
Bu… t.co/MCGyRs1MtF
2 days 15 hours ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
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