by Jon Ralston Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:17
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@GarrettHaake Dude!
8 hours 59 min ago.
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Roy Kent is one of the best characters on TV in awhile. He is so hilarious and poignant.
#Emmys
9 hours 17 sec ago.
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That last line has a pic of him, his wife and Trump. No fraud claims about 2020, though. At least not yet.
Here's… t.co/rnPtKghwQH
9 hours 20 min ago.
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"Kind, experience, tough, trustworthy and real. He's got a smile that never quits. But don't let that smile fool yo… t.co/XpFIMaUQaK
9 hours 20 min ago.
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"People who work for a living are scared, and I've had it."
"I'm sick of seeing abortion clinics open while church… t.co/quYjKWs3bW
9 hours 20 min ago.
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The video also says Heller thought he was "done with politics" and his wife saying that was "fine with us." But the… t.co/6AN9rKtBEI
9 hours 20 min ago.
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"Working people are getting crushed by this governor. Mask mandates. Defunding the police. Endless lockdowns." Yes… t.co/FTeBuIdaow
9 hours 20 min ago.
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In advance of his announcement for gov Mon., @DeanHeller has released a beautifully produced video: "Dean Heller. T… t.co/DStgIZaw40
9 hours 20 min ago.
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@LizMair @Bencjacobs @Olivianuzzi I fear Olivia may cut me off at the knees for encouraging this.
10 hours 49 min ago.
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@Bencjacobs @Olivianuzzi Unkindest cut of all, Ben.
10 hours 57 min ago.
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"It’s therefore no surprise to see presidents (from both parties) expand the scope of their power in response to le… t.co/E13Jy1iBar
13 hours 59 min ago.
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"...registration numbers in (NV) don’t hold the same easy assurances for Democrats as they do for their allies to t… t.co/MKTFKupkfh
14 hours 31 min ago.
In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.
Compared to other polls released this week -- ones by POS, ARG and PPP -- the NBC poll has a much larger sample (984 likely, 1,308 registered) and the demographics actually seem to be very close to what they should be -- although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent). The partisan and regional breakdowns are good.
Some of the key numbers:
Obama-Romney: 49-47 and 51-44
Heller-Berkley: 49-43, 48-44
Obama: 50-47, favorable/unfavorable
Romney: 45-48, favorable-unfavorable
Those favorabble/unfavorable numbers don't bode well for Romney, on one hand, but also suggest that even if some people don't like the GOP nominee, they still will vote against the president.
Some interesting information from the crosstabs, which are here:
Obama is up by only 7 in Clark County and Berkley tied in Clark County among likely voters? Those seem low for both of them. Obama is ahead by 11 in Clark among registered voters, which seems more reasonable. The Washoe numbers are odd -- Obama up by 12 among likely and 18 (!) among registered voters there. More in Washoe than in Clark? Not likely. Both seem high, and would seem to indicate the rurals are given too much weight, perhaps.
It also would seem Heller is up by more than 5 in Washoe (2 among registered voters) -- if he's not, that's trouble.
I know Democrats here fell pretty confident about where Obama is -- they think he is up more -- and less so about Berkley -- they think she is close but perhaps not ahead. So if you take the registered voter numbers here, they pretty much match what I have been hearing about the race from those who have seen data I trust.
But check out the numbers in detail for yourself in the pdf below.
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