Monmouth poll quick takes

My thoughts on the new Monmouth poll showing the presidential and Senate races close (Hillary up 4, Joe Heck up 2) in Nevada:

1. Forty-four percent (!) of Nevada voters say they think Hillary committed a crime. Danger, Will Robinson!

2. Clinton and Trump fave/unfaves almost identical. That's surprising and not good for her.

3. More than half of the voters (55 percent) have "no opinion" on the two-term attorney general, Catherine Cortez Masto -- and that's AFTER hundreds of thousands of dollars in image ads. The corresponding number for Heck is 44 percent. So two candidates, not that well known, ample room to define by opponent.

4. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is still upside down -- 41/46 -- in approval ratings. No wonder Heck keeps talking about him....

FYI, Monmouth is rated A-plus by the 538 crew. (These numbers make intuitive sense -- Hillary with slight lead, Senate race a toss-up.) The demos are reasonable -- 4 point Dem edge (it's 5 points in registration), although the Hispanic number (15 percent) may be low. Some think Hispanic turnout will be a fifth of the electorate -- it was close to that in past presidential cycles --'s July.

Remember: A quarter of Nevada's electorate is not registered with either major party. Getting a handle on those voters will be key to November.