by Jon Ralston Thu, 10/25/2012 - 06:21
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@AnjeanetteDamon "The state also opted to allow Northshore to continue providing rapid antigen tests to the public… t.co/VKICI9gpvp
17 hours 13 min ago.
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@AnjeanetteDamon Yes, there was a holiday weekend, but the gov or anyone else did not call a presser to announce wh… t.co/mAaMu4GiEe
17 hours 14 min ago.
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@AnjeanetteDamon "NV's own internal documents, however, indicate Northshore voluntarily stopped PCR testing days be… t.co/VMwpzcM6Nk
17 hours 16 min ago.
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Not much happening in Nevada in the aftermath of this bombshell besides more probing by journos and damage control… t.co/U8L2jvEp4v
17 hours 17 min ago.
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@joeygilbertinc @NVGOP This was the local NPR affiliate, FYI.
17 hours 39 min ago.
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Have never heard this on NPR: Before it played an interview with gov hopeful @joeygilbertinc, darling of @NVGOP, th… t.co/Yqu47KsadQ
17 hours 44 min ago.
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It never ceases to amaze me how many smart people are so dumb about trans issues.
Pro tip: Try meeting trans peopl… t.co/Bx51l8PmxG
18 hours 13 min ago.
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I learned from politicians to stay on message!
And, thanks, @BerggrenCRE! t.co/uijl4oyJU5
18 hours 17 min ago.
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Veteran legislator leaves -- too familiar story for Carson City, where the quality has become more strained in rece… t.co/29JfRhSjBW
18 hours 39 min ago.
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After I saw Liotta’s tour de force debut in “Something Wild,” I knew he would be a star. The intensity, manic energ… t.co/CQwli0X3Dd
19 hours 4 min ago.
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Great rundown of “the primary is over” debate via @s_golonka, with assists from @MichelleRindels and @RileySnyder. t.co/33w88DGjUA
21 hours 8 min ago.
UPDATED: The latest statewide numbers are in. Bottom line: Democrats have a 9-point lead, almost 23,000 in raw votes. The state site is still not updating with Washoe mail ballots, where Republicans have had an advantage. Rural numbers are coming in strongly, with nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for GOP (19,975-11,211). It will be interesting to see if high early voting in rural areas, especially Douglas County, means there will be higher-than-usual cow country turnout or fewer rural voters on Election Day.
Staewide results are here.
Democrats added about 6,000 voters to their lead in Clark County on the fifth day of early voting Wednesday while the Republicans cut a sliver out of the opposition's lead in Washoe County.
There is no sign -- at least not yet -- of a Republican surge that will cause a huge turnout differential that could change the dynamic. But with the fifth straight say of 30,000-plus voters, the real question is whether Election Day turnout may be so small as to not make much of a difference in the presidential or U.S. Senate races, unless they are very close after early voting.
Nearly 180,000 people have voted by mail or at the polls in Clark County after five days -- 21 percent of all county voters. If turnout is 80 percent in Clark, that means more than a quarter of the total vote already is done with nine days to go.
The numbers in Southern Nevada:
Democrats-- 89,687, or 50 percent
Republicans -- 59,099, or 33 percent
Others -- 30,973, or 17 percent
Overall turnout by party looks like this in Clark:
Democrats -- 23 percent
Republicans -- 22.5 percent
Others -- 15.7 percent
So no turnout differential in Clark so far.
The Republicans won Washoe on Wednesday by 200 votes out of about 8,300 cast. But the Democrats still have the lead (caveat: Washoe has been slow in updating mail ballots, where the GOP has a solid edge): 16,792-15,809.
I'll leave you with this perspective: In 2008, which the GOP wants to use as a baseline because the party looks much stronger than that disastrous showing, Democrats had an 83,000-vote edge after early voting ended. With that margin, Barack Obama won Clark County by 19 points, just slightly under the 21-point early vote edge. If the Republicans don't turn this pattern around in the second week, where traditionally voting is higher and closer between the parties, the Demicrats likley won't get to 2008 levels but may get to 65,000 or so.
Unless there is significant partisan hemorraghing by Obama and unless he is getting killed by indies (no sign of that in any polling), this firewall will be tough for the GOP to pierce. And unless the Republicans make progress in Washoe -- they need to win by at least 5 points, I'd say -- i don't see any way Mitt Romney wins the state.
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