The early voting blog: Updated every day with numbers and analysis

FINAL, FINAL, 5:45PM, 11/3:

Absentees counted since Saturday morning bring GOP lead to 24,000 ballots, 8 percent. Totals.

MORE NUMBERS TO CONSUDER BEFORE TUESDAY, 10:30 AM, 11/3:

The chart below contains the breakdown of early/mail vote relative to registration the the three areas of the state. As you can see, the Republicans have a 9 percent advantage statewide relative to registration; a nearly 9.5 percent edge in Clark where Democratic turnout has been putrid; a 5.5 percent edge in Washoe; and a 6 percent-plus edge in the rurals. By far the biggest edge in Clark, which accounts for that statewide edge.




STATEWIDE D R Rest Total
Reg 482198 420162 310833 1213193
  39.7% 34.6% 25.6%  
EV/Mail 113480 136723 51926 302129
  23.5% 32.5% 16.7% 24.9%
CLARK        
Reg 358279 251708 212953 822940
  43.5% 30.6% 25.9%  
EV/Mail 79064 79331 33338 191733
  22.1% 31.5% 15.7% 23.3%
WASHOE        
Reg 80400 86562 58555 225517
  35.7% 38.4% 26.0%  
EV/Mail 21634 27930 9976 59540
  26.9% 32.3% 17.0%  
RURALS        
Reg 43069 81892 39775 164736
  26.1% 49.7% 24.1%  
EV/Mail 12782 29462 8612 50856
  29.7% 36.0% 21.7%  

Also, another piece of data: The last three days of voting in Clark County cut the share of the rural vote down a tad:





Turnout by region    Actual reg Diff
Clark 63.4% 67.8% -4.4%
Washoe 19.7% 18.6% 1.1%
Rurals 16.9% 13.6% 3.3%

FINAL CD4 NUMBERS, 11/3, 9 AM:

Republicans ended with a 1,874 ballot or 3 percent lead in early and absentee voting.






County Republicans Democrats Republican Margin Total Votes Rep % Dem %
Clark 25,285 26,485 -1,200 62,339 41% 42%
White Pine 764 507 257 1,520 50% 33%
Nye 3,752 2,035 1717 7,254 52% 28%
Esmeralda 81 28 53 135 60% 21%
Mineral 417 327 90 888 47% 37%
Lincoln 302 135 167 496 61% 27%
Lyon 1,167 377 790 1,761 66% 21%
Total  31,768 29,894 1,874 74,393 43% 40%

 

FINAL NUMBERS, 11/1, 7:30 AM:

23,000-plus statewide lead for Republicans, or 7 percentage points.

Kudos to SOS for getting statewide numbers up so quickly.

Bottom line GOP leads (rounded):

Clark: +250

Washoe: +6,300

Rurals: +16,650

That's a big number for Dems running statewide to overcome because that's the one area where there is not much crossover.

Clark is still about 5 points lower than it's actual percentage of state registration, Washoe is right where it should be and rurals 5 points above. Clark turnout is dangerously low for Dems. As one wag put it: Mostly indifferent (R) v. Totally indifferent (D).

Key number: 51,926. Those are the third party and indie voters. How they split will save or kill candidates.

Turnout of a little more than 300,000 voters, or 25 percent. I doubt overall turnout gets to 50 percent, maybe not 40!.

Democrats think if they get GOP edge to 5-7 points (it's 7 now), they can save Miller and maybe Marshall because they have the ability to get crossover. But can Dems actually stay even or win Election Day? Is anyone left who hasn't voted? Won't turnout be very, verty low Tuesday? Can the Culinary put Horsford over the top and help save Miller?

The last three days in Clark may have allowed the Dems to save the Assembly -- I still think the Senate probably is gone --  but if the GOP doesn't take over, they will second-guess themselves for not recruiting candidates above the drool-and-mumble level in races they might have won. It will be close.

Predictions Sunday!

DAY 14, IT'S OVER, FIRST LOOK, 10/31, 10 PM:

Dems won Clark by more than 1,300, lost Washoe and Douglas by 300 each. Net plus 700. After rurals come in, day will be a wash, so GOP will go into Election Day with a 22,000-plus ballot lead statewide.

Dems also lost every key state Senate district again. margins in SD8 (2,000) and SD20 (1,700) seem insurmountable and SD9 (800) seems so, too, although Dems holding out hope.

It's all about who can get saved now -- Miller, Marshall, Horsford and the Assembly. Going to be some weird results Tuesday.

More analysis after some sleep....

DAY 13 UPDATE, 8 AM, 10/31:

Statewide numbers will be out soon. A wash, as you can see below, in urban Nevada, so GOP will pick up a little because of rural vote.

Very unlikley GOP gets to 25,000-ballot lead by end of today. But will stay over 20,000, I'd guess.

Most years, the last day is the heaviest day. By the end of this day in 2010, the Democrats had a 9-point lead in early voting in Clark and a 25,000-ballot lead. They will be lucky to be even this cycle. 

CD4: Now D+381 in Clark part of the district, where Ds have a 40,000-vote reg edge. Danger Will Robinson.
 
State Senate: No need to recount the numbers as you can see them below. Very simple: Unless Justin Jones is causing Becky Harris to bleed Republicans and indies, he will lose. Dems are down by almost 800 ballots, and you can't make that up on Election Day if the the parties are holding their bases.
 
Assembly: It is still in play. Very much in play. The Republicans are ahead or close enough in key districts to flip enopugh seats to take control. Only silver lining for Dems: As you go down the ballot, people tend to have had more contact with the candidates, so more independent voting possible. Dems better hope so.
 
The wave is coming, folks. Only question is who gets washed away.
 

DAY 13 FIRST LOOK, 9:45 PM, 10/30:

Dems won for second straight day in Clark, have gained more than a thousand ballots in two days. Today:

DEM – 7,496
GOP – 6,828
NP – 3,107

Washoe still steadily GOP:

Dems =  1,904   Reps = 2,451
NP = 740  Minor Parties = 237

But Dems still lost all three key state Senate districts again today -- the gaps are starting to look untenable for the Dems.

Cumulative Early Vote

 
SD 8 - REP +12.3
Republican - 6,944 (48.0%)
Democrat - 5,158 (35.7%)
 
SD 9 - REP +6.9
Republican - 4,934 (43.7%)
Democrat - 4,157 (36.8%)
 
SD 20 - REP +10.9
Republican - 6,519 (46.5%)
Democrat - 4,980 (35.6%)
 
Dailies
 
SD8
 
 
 
D
R
I
Total
552
751
308
1611
34.26%
46.62%
19.12%
 
       
       
SD9
 
 
 
D
R
I
Total
537
567
283
1387
38.72%
40.88%
20.40%
 
       
       
SD20
 
 
 
D
R
I
Total
621
798
318
1737
35.75%
45.94%
18.31%
 
       
       
DAY 12 UPDATE, MORE DATA, 3 PM, 10/30:

GOP ballot leads (rounded):

Clark -- +2,200

Washoe -- +5,400

Rurals -- +13,400

Bottom line: The rural lead will be 15,000-plus by the end of early voting, and Washoe will be about 6,000. If the Democrats are really lucky, they will be even in Clark -- and I doubt they get there. Even if most statewide GOP candidates only have a 10,000-vote lead coming out of the rurals (trying to be conservative), that will mean Democrats have to run well over their party's ballot performance -- i.e. peeling away Republicans and indies -- in the urban areas. Those who can will survive; those who can't, and many won't, will lose.

So keep an eye on what the totals are in each area when those early voting numbers come up on Election Night; there may not be enough votes on Election Day to save many Democrats. I still think Democrats running statewide who don't have a double-digit lead coming out of the South -- and that looks unlikely for all of them -- will lose.

DAY 12 UPDATE, STATEWIDE COUNT, 1 PM, 10/30:

It's 21,000-plus, 9-point lead for GOP.

 

DAY 12 UPDATE, 10/30, 8:30 AM, MORE DATA:

DAY 12 UPDATE, 10/30, 6:30 AM:

Full report coming soon, but the latest aggregate numbers show that the Democrats have yet to put up any serious sandbags to blunt the force of the coming wave. To wit:

Clark had robust turnout, highest yet:

GOP--62,694

Dems -- 60,520

Others -- 25,649

Total -- 146,831

So: A 2,000-plus ballot lead for the GOP. And it's 42 percent to 40 percent, so the GOP is 11 points above registration and the Dems are almost 4 below theirs.

Washoe (also without Wednesday mail): 

GOP -- 22,090

Dems -- 16,858

Others -- 7,604

Total: 46,552

So a 5,000-plus-ballot lead. And 47-36, which means GOP is 8 points above and Dems right at registration.

Some other numbers after Wednesday in the sudden battle for the Assembly with Dems making some gains:

DAY 12, FIRST LOOK, DEMS WIN CLARK BUT CANCELED BY WASHOE, 10/29, 9:45 PM:

The Democrats finally won Clark, but not by a lot and state Senate looking worse and worse:

Dems – 6,295

Reps – 5,881

Rest – 2,759

Total -- 14,935

So they gained 414 ballots (42 percent to 39 percent), but still trail by almost 2,500 ballots.

And they essentially were canceled by Washoe:

Dems, 1,689 Reps, 2,087 Rest, 824 So +398. As I said, a wash in the urban counties.

And the GOP will rule the rurals.

So another overall losing day for the Dems. Need bigger wins next two days or this just gets uglier.

Oh, one more thing: Rs pretty much even Wednesday in CD4 (lost a little ground but still up in Clark portion) and state Senate numbers just got more terrible:

Cumulative

DAY 11 UPDATE, CD4 TOTALS, STATE SENATE MAY BE GONE, ASSEMBLY IN PLAY, 1 PM, 10/29:

►GOP lead is now 2,500 ballots in Rep. Steven Horsford's district:






County Republicans Democrats Republican Margin Total Votes Rep % Dem %
Clark 17,769 17,523 246 42,432 42% 41%
White Pine 547 395 152 1,109 49% 36%
Nye 2,726 1,420 1306 5,174 53% 27%
Esmeralda 64 17 47 101 63% 17%
Mineral 313 237 76 664 47% 36%
Lincoln 212 96 116 349 61% 28%
Lyon 805 239 566 1,193 67% 20%
Total  22,436 19,927 2,509 51,022 44% 39%

►Here are the latest legislative race numbers in Clark County. The state Senate looks gone, unless Justin Jones can pull a rabbit out of his hat in the next few days. And look at those Assembly numbers:

DAY 11 UPDATE, THE GOP LEAD GROWS, 9:30 AM, 10/29

The GOP statewide lead is now almost 20,000 ballots.

I see red people.

DAY 11, GOP TAKES LEAD IN CLARK PART OF CD4, 7:45 AM, 10/29

Republicans surged Tuesday in the overwhelmingly Democratic part of Rep. Steven Horsford's district, even as Bill Clinton was trying to drive Dems to the polls. Here are the updated Clark numbers:

17,769, GOP; 17,523,Dems. The GOP is up 246 votes out of more than 42,000 cast in a part of the district that has a 40,000 Dem voter reg edge.

DAY 11, FIRST LOOK, 9:45 PM, 10/28:

Thanks, Bill.

Destruction continues: 

REP – 5,839

DEM – 5,271

NP – 2,481

Total: 13,591

Washoe:

Dems = 1,686   Reps = 2,180
NP = 585   Minor Parties = 184

Wow.

Oh, and there's this:

 

 

DAY 10, DON'T FORGET THE RURALS, 3 PM, 10/28:

Rural Nevada turnout (18 percent when it is 13 percent of reg) is giving the cow counties a disproporionate say in the election. Clark is down as much as the cows are up (from 68 percent of actual reg to 63 percent) and Washoe is right where its reg is at, 19 percent.

Turnout in Washoe is at 16 percent while it is 14 percent in Clark. No rural county is under 16 percent, the majority are in the 20s and a couple are in the 30s.

The number of votes in rural Nevada is still relatively low: 32,118. But it's the ballot lead that counts: 18,883 Republicans to 8,036 Democrats. So closing in on an 11,000-ballot lead. If turnout continues to be this low, that puts even more pressure on Democrats to offset what surely will be a large ballot deficit in the rurals, which could be a fifth of the vote.

Democrats who do not have a double-digit percentage lead in Clark after those first early/mail ballot numbers pop up early on Election Night are going to be biting their nails all night long. Or leaving the parties early.

 

DAY 10, ALL MONDAY'S NUMBERS UPDATED, 1:30 PM, 10/28:

Statewide update complete

The lead is a little more than 17,000 ballots. It's 46 percent, GOP, to 37 percent, Democrats. So  GOP is +11 on reg and Dems are -3 on theirs.

186,390 have voted. That's 15 percent. I still say overall turnout may not get to 50 percent.

DAY 10 UPDATE,  LATEST CD4 NUMBERS, 10 AM, 10/28:

GOP now has a 2,000-ballot lead in the Democratic district:






County Republicans Democrats Republican Margin Total Votes Rep % Dem %
Clark 12,883 12,970 -87 30,125 43% 43%
White Pine 488 331 157 959 51% 35%
Nye 2,441 1,273 1168 4,610 53% 28%
Esmeralda 52 16 36 85 61% 19%
Mineral 285 214 71 603 47% 35%
Lincoln 187 83 104 305 61% 27%
Lyon 805 239 566 1,193 67% 20%
Total  17,141 15,126 2,015 37,880 45% 40%

DAY 10 UPDATE,  9:30 AM, 10/28:

Four days left, Bill Clinton is here today, so let's see where we are:

Statewide: By the time all the numbers post, the GOP will have about a 17,000-ballot lead in Nevada. That is large. 

CD4: Huge day for GOP here Monday -- they won the early vote by 250 votes. The Republicans are down by 45 votes out of more than 36,000 cast in a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic -- the Dems have a 40,000-voter registration edge out of 262,000 registered. If Rep. Steven Horsford is not getting crossovers or a singnificant portion of the indies, say hello to Rep. Cresent Hardy.

State Senate: As I have been telling you, two of the state Senate districts appear gone -- SD8 and SD20 (1,300 ballots or so in each) are showing massive GOP advantages. And the GOP has been building a steady lead in SD9 (500 ballots) , Justin Jones' district. You can see the percentages below. here's the probhlem for the Democratic candidates if the GOP folks are holding their bses -- there will not be enough votes lefton Election Day to save them, even if Nov. 4 turnout is heavily Democratic.

Assembly: I'll say it again: It's in play, folks. The Republicans have raw ballot advantages in two-thirds of the districts in Clark County.

Historical comparisons: I am not sure these are even useful anymore because this is such an aberrant year, but:

In 2010 at this juncture, Democrats had a 14,000-ballot lead in Clark.

In 2006, it was 4,500.

Here's another thing to remember: After amassing a 25,000-ballot lead in early/mail voting in 2010, when the first numbers posted on Election Night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had a 34,000-vote lead over Sharron Angle. In 2006, after building a 5,500-vote firewall, the first returns showed Ross Miller and Kate Marshall with 20,000-plus vote leads. They need that Clark Cushion. They may not have it this time.

As the graph a few posts below shows, the turnout numbers are not that far off from 2006. But the partisan breakdown is much different. Overall 2006 turnout was just under 60 percent. I doubt we are getting there this cycle.

DAY 10, WASHOE POSTS,  8:30 AM, 10/28:

Another solid day for GOP: 1,452-1,112.

Winning by 300 votes-plus almost every day. Ballot lead there now up above 4,000.

DAY 10, FIRST LOOK,  10 PM, 10/27:

No Washoe numbers yet.

But huge day for GOP in Clark, now closing in on a 2,000-ballot lead. Monday's numbers:

12,319 total

5,381 GOP

4,762 DEM

2,176 NP

That's 44 percent for the party with 31 percent of the registration and 39 percent for the party with 44 percent of the registration.

And in key state Senate districts:

SAVE US, BUBBA!!!!

DAY 9, ALL THE MATH LOOKS BAD FOR DEMS, 12:30 PM, 10/27:

Some math to illustrate just how dominant the GOP is and how all the harbingers are of doom for the Dems:

►Total turnout is 14 percent. That means getting to the usual midterm of 60 percent is highly unlikely unless there is a huge push on Election Day, which has not occurred for many, many cycles. About 60 percent of people usually vote early. There are five days left. It will go up toward the end of the week, as usual I'd guess. But surely not enough.

Clark County is only 63 percent of the statewide turnout -- that's 5 points below its registration. So not only are Democrats not building a firewall, the Democratic bastion's overall share of the vote will not be high. The rurals are about 4 points above their registration, and Republicans will dominate there.

Look at the raw ballot numbers:

Clark: GOP, +1,438

Washoe: GOP, +3,749

Rurals: +9,614

So for a Democrat to win statewide, the goal would be to win Clark by enough to offset -- or more than offset -- the rural carnage and then hope to split Washoe. Washoe is more GOP, the rurals will have more ballots proportionally and the Dems have no Clark firewall. See where I'm going here?

27,400. That's the number of third-party and nonpartisan voters that are out there. The Dems will be lucky to split them, and most, if polling is to be trusted, wwill lose them. Those Dems who survive will do well with them and win or break even in Washoe. Ross Miller? Kate Marshall? That's their only hope.

In 2010 at this time in early voting the Democrats had a 14,000-vote firewall in Clark, ont heir way to 25,000. In 2006, it was 4,300. They would be thrilled at this point to get anywhere near 2006 levels. And that seems like a long shot at this point as the GOP has held its own every day in Clark. Will that change with Bill Clinton in Southern Nevada tomorrow?

► Finally, here's why CD4 is suddenly on everyone's radar. The numbers are devastating for Rep. Steven Horsford.






County Republicans Democrats Republican Margin Total Votes Rep % Dem %
Clark 10,714 11,050 -336 26,238 41% 42%
White Pine 409 283 126 818 50% 35%
Nye 2,191 1,145 1046 4,127 53% 28%
Esmeralda 52 16 36 85 61% 19%
Mineral 238 182 56 508 47% 36%
Lincoln 161 72 89 272 59% 26%
Lyon 740 208 532 1,078 69% 19%
Total  14,505 12,956 1,549 33,126 44% 39%

DAY 9, STATEWIDE TOTALS, NOON, 10/27

Statewide totals are posted.

Bottom line: GOP now up almost 15,000 ballots statewide. 46 percent to 37 percent. Actual registration is 40-35, Dem. So GOP is 11 points above, Dems 3 points below. 14-point differential.

I see red people.

MORE DAY 9 NUMBERS, 8:30 AM, 10/27:

You can see below how bad it is for the Dems. And total; Clark turnout is only 14 percent, indicating, as I suspected, we are going to have historically low numbers this cycle.

But here's what happened Sunday:

They lost CD4 by 54 votes out of nearly 3,000 cast. Democrats now have only a 300-ballot lead there. Take note: Rep. Steven Horsford won Clark County by 29,000 votes in 2012 and lost rural Nevada by 10,000 votes. Let's suppose he only loses the rural part by 3,000 votes this cycle. He's still in big trouble.

Only silver lining I saw for Dems on Sunday is in the race for the state Senate, while they continue to get crushed in SD8 and SD20, but only lost by 6 votes in SD9. Still, they still trail in the latter by 400 votes. Tough to make that up on Election Day. And by that I mean: impossible.

DAY 9, FIRST LOOK, 6AM, 10/27:

The Republicans won Clark and Washoe on Sunday and head into the last five days with a ballot lead that could reach close to 20,000 statewide unless the Democrats find a way to turn this around. It's too early for detailed numbers -- coming later -- but the latest from the urban counties:

Clark on Sunday: 4,285-4,117, GOP. So Republicans have won seven of the 9 days and essentially tied the others in a county where the Democrats have a 107,000-voter edge. They are 11 points above their registration and have a 1,200-ballot lead where they always -- always! -- have a deficit. If the Democrats do not have a ballot lead in Clark by week's end -- and I mean a few thosuand at least -- they are going to lose a lot of races in the South (bye bye Senate, maybe bye bye Assembly) and most statewide races, if not all. Barring, that is, some kind of peeling away of Republicans and a lot of indie support, which is unlikely for almost all of the Democratic hopefuls.

Washoe on Sunday: Turnout was way down -- only about 1,700 people voted, about half of the number on most days last week. But the GOP still won by getting slightly less than half of those who did (810) while the Democrats turned out about a hundred less (692). Losing by a hundred was a victory of sorts for the Dems, who have been losing by about 300 voters a day. But they are still behind by 4,000 ballots in Washoe, which could be decisive even if they make a Clark comeback.

More numbers later....

 

DAY 8 UPDATE, THE GOP STATE SENATE COMETH, 10 AM:

Here are the latest:

Saturday in SD9: 414-332, GOP (overall, 2,547-2,137)

Saturday in SD8: 508-350, GOP (overall, 4,370-3,156)

Saturday in SD20: 722-544, GOP (overall, 3,860-2,825)

Practice saying it: Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson.

 

 

DAY 8 UPDATE, 9 AM:

The turnout nightmare continues for Democrats, who tried to juice it on Saturday by handing out Bill Clinton tickets at The Dooilttle Center in the heart of West Las Vegas. It did not work. Republicans lose early vote by 42 votes out of 12,000 cast. Dems have six more days to turn this around and/or hope for Election Day miracle.

The Clark numbers for Saturday: 5,064-5,022, Dem; others, 2,040

Clark totals with mail: 39, 982, GOP; 38,715, Dems; 15,851, others

So not much change at all. It's 42 percent for GOP and 41 percent for Dems, which means Republicans still 11 points over their registration and Dems 3 percent below theirs. How many different words can I find for "disaster" for the Dems?

Washoe is also steady for the GOP.

The Washoe numbers for Saturday: 1,409-1,117, GOP.

Washoe totals with mail, too: Washoe, early and mail: GOP, 14,712; Dems, 11,081; 4,875.

So GOP closing in on a 4,000-ballot lead in Washoe and has a 48 percent to 36 percent lead. Republicans lead in actual voter registration by 3 points.

In CD4, where Dems need to turn up turnout to save Rep. Steven Horsford, they won by....4 votes Saturday. Out of 3,800 cast. He better be getting crossovers and indie votes or he is in deep trouble.

One more ray of sunshine for the Dems: They got absolutely crushed in every one of those key state Senate districts on Saturday.

And the state has posted some rural numbers from Saturday, which are ugly for the Dems, as expected.

I say it again: I see red people.

LAST SATURDAY CHART, 10/25, 5 PM:

If the right comparison is not to 2010, because Reid was on the ballot, but to 2006, the chart below shows how similar the turnouts were, although the Democrats still had a lead (3,000-plus votes) after the first week and a substantial one (5,500-plus) after two weeks. Republicans on Friday had almost the same turnout as they did eight years ago as you see the lines meeting while Democrats were 17 percent less than in '06.

 

 

 

MORE FUN WITH CHARTS, 10/25, 5 PM:

The chart below shows two things:

1. Just how far behind 2010's pace turnout is.

2. Just how impressive The Reid Machine was in 2010 in driving up turnout when the majority leader needed to save his seat.

 

 

HERE'S HOW STEADY CLARK TURNOUT HAS BEEN FOR SEVEN DAYS:

DAY 7 FIRST LOOK, 9:30 AM, 10/25:

One week of early/mail voting in the books, one week to go. I see red people.

The Dems hope to turn it around today and are handing out tickets to the Bill Clinton event on Tuesday in a key African-American precinct. We'll see if it helps.

Here are the latest statewide numbers, minus a few rural counties.

Bottom line: GOP wave continues to build. Republicans won both Washoe and Clark -- seven straight days in Washoe, six in Clark. I am a broken record but: We have never seen anything like this since early voting started.

Clark, early and mail: GOP, 34,618; Dems, 33,303; others, 13,693. That's 42 percent to 41 percent, so Republicans are 11 percent above registration and Democrats are 3 percent below theirs. That is a a disaster for the Dems, who are now losing the place they normally build a firewall by 1,300 votes.

Washoe, early and mail: GOP, 13,303; Dems, 9,964; 4,368. That's 48 percent to 36 percent, so Republicans are 10 points above registration and Democrats at are at theirs. That's a 3,500-ballot lead.

The statewide lead, with seven rural counties not yet reporting (and they will help the GOP), is about 13,000 ballots for the GOP.

2010 comparison after a week: The Democrats had an 11,000-ballot lead in Clark and were only down 2,000 in Washoe. How down is Clark turnout? 81,500 have voted this year; in 2010, 124,000 already had voted. It's down 50 percent!

So fewer voters and no firewall to offset losses in the North. Did I mention a wave?

Democrats hope that Republicans are just getting their inveterates out and theirs will come later. Turnout is down for both parties (GOP is down 13,000 voters from 2010 in Clark but Dems are down 25,000.)

Some details:

Rep. Steven Horsford's district: The Democrats have a 400-vote lead out of 24,000 cast. Horsford needs a much bigger cushion than that unless he is getting a ton of crossover votes, which is unlikely.

The state Senate is looking more and more GOP:

SD 8 (+13.3)

Republicans - 3,862 (48.8%)

Democrats - 2,806 (35.5%)



SD 9 (+6.8)

Republicans - 2,133 (44.2%)

Democrats - 1,805 (37.4%)



SD 20 (+13.1)

Republicans - 3,138 (47.9%)

Democrats - 2,281 (34.8%)

Could we see a state Senate and Assembly in GOP hands? It's still unlikley but suddenly possible. All of the Assembly districts that could flip are tilting GOP.

 

 

DAY 6 UPDATE, 9:30 AM, 10/24:

The math shows how bleak this is for Democrats. Let's suppose that so far each party is getting 90 percent of its base and splitting indies (a very favorable hypothetical split this year for Dems). Here's what that would look like right now: 62,856-53,921. Republicans have a 9,000-ballot lead under best-case scenario for Dems with non-major party candidates.

So Democrats either need to cut into the GOP base and/or hope they can push voters to vote for third-party candidates or none of the above. That's their only hope if they can't turn this around and clearly what SOS Ross Miller is doing in the AG's race and what Kate Marshall is trying, to a lesser extent, in the SOS contest. 

DAY 6 UPDATE, 9 AM, 10/24:

Latest urban county totals: 41,538, Repubs; 37,774, Dems; 14,653, other. So: 44 percent, GOP; 40 percent, Dems; 16 percent, others. 4,000-ballot lead for Republicans in urban areas. Rurals haven't reported yet, but the lead is well over 10,000 ballots now.

UPDATE: Most rural counties just reported, so totals: 54,394, GOP 43,227, Dems; 19,157, others. So almost 11,000 ballots and the percentages are: GOP, 47 percent; Dems, 37 percent; 16 percent, others.

There's something happening here....

DAY 6 UPDATE, 7:30 AM, 10/24:

Latest Clark numbers in detail show:

►57,000 people have voted early and 13,000 by mail. In 2010, those toals were nearly 90,000 early and 18,500 by mail. So it is way, way down.

Actual numbers with EV/mail: GOP, 29,961; Dems, 29,008; others, 11,891. That's 42 percent to 41 percent. I remind you: Clark registration is 44 percent, Dems, and 31 percent, GOP. So GOP+11 and Dems-3. Wow.

CD4, where Rep. Steven Horsford is in jeopardy: The Dems won by only 100 votes out of 3,000 cast on Thursday. Overall, it's 8,875, Dems, to 8,480, GOP. If Horsford doesn't have a much bigger lead going into Election Day, he should be very worried because he will lose big in the rurals.

►The Dems are in trouble in the three key state Senate districts. Two may be lost and Justin Jones' is in jeopardy:

SD 8

Republican - 48.5 percent

Democrat - 35.5 percent



SD 9

Republican - 43.8 percent

Democrat - 37.7 percent



SD 20

Republican - 48.1 percent

Democrat - 34.5 percent



Raw Vote in SD 9

Republican - 1,881

Democrat - 1,620

NP/3rd - 792

The problem for Dems is you can't make up many votes on Election Day in those small political subdivisions. So they either dramatically change this and fast or say sayonara to all three seats.

DAY 6 UPDATE, 6:30 AM, 10/24:

Updated numbers coming later but a quick comparison to 2006 and 2010 after six days in Clark, with the caveat this is a turnout model unlike any we have ever seen, especially because Harry Reid was on the ballot four years ago driving turnout with his machine (Where have you gone, Harry Reid? A Democratic base turns its lonely eyes to you.....). Any way you look at it, though, a disaster looms for Democrats if they don't change this soon as we are almost halfway done with early voting and the pattern is set:

2014: GOP, +1,000

2010: Dems, +10,000

2006: Dems, +2,700

The main point, all of these numbers notwithstanding, is that the Dems need to bank a lot of ballots before Election Day in Clark County. Even though this is an unusual election, I'd guess many more voters, as is the usual pattern, will vote before Election Day. So if the Democrats don't have a strong Clark ballot lead a week from today, the carnage will be massive, especially because indies will not break their way. Some Dems may buck the trend, but not many, if any.

Mark my words.

DAY 6, FIRST LOOK, 9:15 PM, 10/23:

Republicans continued a steady drumbeat in Washoe, winning by almost 300 votes, and won for fifth (!) straight day in Clark County but it was close: 38 votes. But after nearly a week, this is a pattern: Republicans are 10 points above their registration, and Democrats are not even holding theirs. It's all about triage now and deciding who to save and who is gone.

The numbers:

Clark:

Republicans - 3,912 (41.6 percent)

Democrats - 3,874 (41.1 percent)

Non-Partisan - 1,628 (17.3 percent)

Total Votes - 9,414

The Republicans also won the critical SD9 by 12 percentage points today. My goodness.

Washoe:

Dems = 1,240 Reps = 1,518 NP = 419 Minor Parties = 127

The statewide lead will be about 10,000 for the GOP after the first week. The Democrats need a huge surge in the second week or Nevada is going to be very, very red.

DAY 5 UPDATE, 1:30 PM AM: BABY, BABY, WHERE DID THE YOUNG VOTERS GO?

In 2010, as CNN's exit polling showed, here's what the age breakdown of the Nevada electorate was:

Here's what it is so far after five days of early voting this year in the two urban counties:

DAY 5 UPDATE, 11:00 AM: DATA CRUNCHING AND MAKING POLLS IRRELEVANT.

Earlier today, I reported on a gaming industry poll that showed Mark Hutchison and Ross Miller presumably safely ahead and Kate Marshall with a decent lead. But there is some reason to believe Miller and Marshall can't feel that comfortable. Here's why:

►Turnout is skewing very old. Older the better for Republicans.

If the turnout continues as it has been and 46 percent of the electorate is Republican and 37 percent is Democratic, as unlikely as that might be, Miller could lose and Marshall almost certainly will.

About 16 percent of the turnout is independents or others. They are not voting heavily Democratic this year, as they did in 2010 and 2008. The more they tilt GOP, the bigger problem for the Dems.

Compare to 2010 at the same point: At this point four years ago, 11.7 percent of Republicans had turned out statewide.; this year, it's slightly lower, 10.9 percent. Four years ago, Democratic turnout was 10.3 percent; this year, it's only 8 percent. Way down.

► At this point in 2010, the Democrats had a 7,600-ballot lead in Clark; this year, they are down by 1,000. That is huge, as I have been telling you. Without a Democratic firewall here, Miller and Marshall would need to get a ton of crossover votes in the urban areas. The question for Miller and Marshall is whether they can drive up their opponents' negatives high enough so they can push their bases away and draw indies. 

More data to consider:

Clark County is only 61 percent of the turnout so far when it is 68 percent of the registration. The lower that number goes, the worse for Democrats. Washoe is 20 percent and the rurals are 19 percent. The rurals are only 14 percent of registration statewide. Keeping that rural number down is key for the Dems to have any chance to head off the wave, too.

In 2012, Rep. Steven Horsford won Clark County by 29,000 votes. He lost the rest of the district by about 10,000 votes. The Democrats are only ahead in Clark by 300 ballots in that district. Horsford presumably will do better in the rurals because he has paid attention there. But he'll need to do a lot better, I'd guess.

The race for the state Senate is looking very bad for the Dems. Here are the numbers in the three key races -- 8 and 20 may be gone, 9 looks possible but tilting GOP:

SD8: 1,932, Dems; 2,557, GOP; 849, others. So that's 48 percent to 36 percent, a 600-ballot lead. Very difficult to turn that around.

SD20: 1,579, Dems; 2,288, GOP; 834, others. That's 49 percent to 34 percent, a 700-ballot lead. Bye bye?

SD9: 1,465, Dems; 1,672, GOP; 713, others. That's 43 percent to 38 percent, a 200-ballot lead. Not good but not over yet.

The wave looks real and large.

DAY 5 UPDATE, 10:00 AM: I predicted earlier this AM that the GOP would have a 10,000-ballot lead by the time all the numbers were in. I was close. It's 9,300, and two rural counties yet to report.

DAY 5, FIRST UPDATE, 9:15 AM:

Some Clark stuff, with EV and mail GOP, 25,541; Dems, 24,643. Amazing the GOP now has almost a 1,000-ballot lead in Clark.

Totals:

CD4: Dems, 7,243; GOP, 6,939. Rep. Steven Horsford needs a much bigger lead than that.

More numbers coming soon....

 

DAY 5, FIRST LOOK, 6:15 AM:

Just some preliminary early vote numbers so far from Washoe and Clark for Wednesday. I'll update soon with more numbers and analysis. But strong showings again in urban areas by the GOP, with four days in a row victories in Clark, which means that the Democrats have not found a way yet to fix a turnout problem that could have them behind by close to 10,000 ballots statewide once those numbers come out later. The Republicans are still turning out 10 points above their registration, and the Democrats are just under theirs in the urban areas.

Never seen anything like this. Starting to think any comparisons -- 2006 or 2010 -- are not helpful. This election is sui generis.

Washoe Wednesday:

GOP: 1,591

Dems: 1,286

Others: 524

Totals, w/mail through Tuesday: 

GOP: 9,497 (50 percent)

Dems: 7,054 (37 percent)

Others: 2,498 (13 percent)

Clark Wednesday: 

GOP: 4,211

Dems: 4,030

Others: 1,807

Totals, with absentees through Tuesday:

GOP: 24,875 (42 percent)

Dems: 24,073 (41 percent)

Others: 9,881 (17 percent)

 

THE 2006 COMPARISON, 1:30 PM, 10/22:

First, latest statewides. GOP ballot lead at 7,763.

Some Democrats, either legitmately or hopefully, are suggesting that the skies are not so cloudy because the real comparison should be to 2006, two midterms ago, not 2010. The main reason: 2010 was unusually skewed toward the Democrats because Harry Reid was on the ballot and the machine was really driving up turnout beyond a usual off-year. (Of course, GOP turnout also was up to beat Reid.)

No one on the Democratic side is suggesting the skies are not darkening. But they think there's still time for blue skies (blue, get it!) to appear.

Here's the argument:

In 2006 after four days, the Democrats had a raw vote lead of 1,637; this year the GOP leads by 517. That's a swing of 2,100 votes, but not as huge as the difference compared to 2010, when the Democrats had a 5,000-vote lead after Day Four.

At the end of early voting in Clark four years ago, the Dems had a 25,000-vote lead. In 2006, it was 5,600.

Total Clark turnout also is up only 8.9 percent over 2006 while registration is up 27 percent over eight years.

And, some argue, these voters are high-information, willing not to vote for what one Democrat called some of the "Lewis Carroll" types the GOP has on the ballot. As one Democrat reminded me, "That same electorate that in 2006 elected Jim Gibbons (governor) by 4 percent also elected Ross Miller (SOS) by 8 percent -- a 12 percent swing among the same electorate.  Turnout is a big variable in the equation no doubt, but it's not the only variable."

Yes, candidates matter. So that may be mitigating for the Dems.

But. But. But.

There were only 650,000 Clark voters eight years ago; now there are 822,000. So proportionally, there is a difference.

And Republicans are voting 10 percentage points above their registration while Democrats are not quite at theirs. If -- if! -- Republcians can maintain that, it's almost impossible for Democrats to save many of their folks, no matter how many negative ads or turnout rallies with big names they have.

Nonpartisans are heavily leaning Republican this cycle, too, which makes this even more difficult for the Democrats. It's not impossible, but as one GOP operatve told me, "It¹s a big ship being steered in one direction. They have to work hard to turn that ship."

We will know if the ship is turning around in the next few days. Democrats can say a third of the people will vote in the last three days, but by then it may be too late.

By the way, the 2006 numbers also answer a trivia question: When was the last time the Republicans beat the Democrats on any single day of early voting in Clark County before this year? Answer: Nov. 1, 2006. They won by 47 votes.

Three days in a row? That is unprecedented.

My take: 2014 is not like 2010 or 2006. It's like 2014, with an unpopular president on the ballot whether it's literal or not and a hugely popular Republican governor spending money and political capital to create a wave that may elect some people he will soon regret having helped.

But I think he'll be able to sleep at night.

 

DAY 4 UPDATE, 7:30 AM, 10/22: 

Full Clark report in for Day 4, and with absentees, the totals are: 20,664, GOP; 20,043, Dems; 8,074, others. Total: 48,781 have cast ballots. So it's still Dems just below registration and GOP more than 10 points above.

Comparison to 2010 after 4 days: About 75,000 had voted, so turnout is way down this cycle. And the Democrats already had banked a 6,000-vote lead over the GOP.

In Washoe four years ago, the Rs had a 1,300-vote lead. It's more than 2,000 this year.

Silver lining/straw-grasping on Day 4 for Dems: They are still getting crushed in the early vote in key state Senate Districts 8 and 20. But in SD9, which may determine control, they turned it around and won Tuesday by 283-242. But they are still behind by more than 100 votes. Justin Jones won by 300 votes last cycle, a big Democratic year.

In CD4, where Rep. Steven Horsford's career may be at a crossroads, the Dems are up by about 300 ballots out of mroe than 13,000 cast in the heavily Democratic part of the district. They won by only 48 votes Tuesday out of 2,000 cast. Not good.

Four of 14 days in the books. The Dems need a huge second week, where turnout usually goes up. Or there will be blood.

DAY 4 UPDATE, 6:30 AM, 10/22: 

I'll have more details about Clark soon, but I have Washoe mail to add to the mix. It's now at 1,657-1,051, GOP. The EV numbers are: 6,249, GOP; 4,717, Dems; rest, 1,974 Total: 8,620. So totals: 7.906-5,768.

So a 2,000-plus ballot lead in Washoe and about even in Clark. Republicans must be rubbing their hands together thinking of the possibilites: Statewide sweep, state Senate control, possible upset of Rep. Steven Horsford, even an Assembly miracle?

DAY 4, CLARK NUMBERS, 9:30 PM, 10/21: Another bad day for the Dems -- GOP wins third straight day. Turnout was 10,116: GOP, 4,335; Dems, 4,038. That's 43 percent to 40 percent. Actual reg: 44-31, Dem.

Maybe the Dems are late-inning players?

FIRST DAY 4 NUMBERS, 7 PM, 10/21: Washoe posted numbers. Another good day for GOP -- 2,084-1,586. Raw ballot lead now well over 2,000.

 

 

DAY 3, UPDATE, 10 AM, 10/21: LATEST STATEWIDE 

57,520 people have voted early or by mail. GOP: 26,402 Dem: 21,254 Rest: 9,354 That's a 5,000 raw vote lead for the GOP.

That's 46 percent to 37 percent for the GOP. Actual state registration is 40 percent, Dems, and 35 percent, GOP. That's a 14 percent difference. Hello, wave.

DAY 3, UPDATE, 9:15 AM, 10/21:

It just keeps getting uglier for Dems. Washoe turnout for Monday: Dems, 1,079; Repubs, 1,434; Rest, 563

Totals: 3,131, Dems; 4,165, GOP; rest, 1,324 Total: 8,620

So GOP already has banked a 1,000-vote lead. GOP leads, 48 percent to 36 percent. That's 9 points more than the GOP registration edge.

By the way, no new mail totals yet, but GOP had a nearly 500-vote lead. So my guess is that the overall lead is now approaching 1,750 or so.

DAY 3, UPDATE, 8 AM, 10/21:

Clark EV: 11,467, Dems;  11,684, GOP; 4,741, others Total voted: 27,892

Clark mail: 3,644, Dems; 3,723, GOP; 1,279 Total mail: 8,646

Clark totals: 15,111 Dems; 15,407, GOP; 6,020 Total EV/mail: 36,538 (That's about 20,000 fewer ballots than in 2010.)

So: GOP, 42 percent; Dems, 42, percent; others, 16 percent

GOP is more than 10 points above registration; Dems are a point below theirs. That's amazing.

Key numbers:

CD1: 3,607, Dems, to 2,618, Repubs in EV. Dems have 500-ballot lead in mail, too, so Dina Titus probably can rest easy. Probably. (Her opponent, Annette Tejeiro, is up on Spanish-language radio starting this AM.)

CD4: 3,247, Dems, to 3,056, GOP in EV. Five ballot difference in absentees. This race is in play now because the Clark portion of the district is heavily Democratic. And Karl Rove's Crossroads just made a TV buy. Rep. Steven Horsford is in possible trouble.

The turnout numbers int he Assembly districts look pretty good for the GOP, too, which, remarkably, could put the lower hosue in play. Six seats would make it a 21-21 tie, which only happened in 1995.

DAY 3, FIRST TAKE, 6:30 AM, 10/21:

Washoe did not post numbers last night for some reason, but Clark numbers are looking more than ominous for the Democrats: They look disastrous so far. if this keeps up, I don't know how any of their statewide candidates survive. Melodramatic? Maybe. But consider:

----Three of 14 days in, and Republicans have now won two days in a row, which is unprecedented, and lead -- lead! -- in a county where Democrats have a nearly 107,000 voter edge (13 percentage points) and usually dominate.

----At this time in 2010, Democrats had won three straight days and had a nearly 4,000-ballot lead on their way to building a 25,000-ballot firewall.

Monday in Clark: Preliminary numbers, without mail yet -- Republicans, 4,422; Democrats, 4,217. So far: 13,597, Democrats; 13,779, Republicans.

So Republicans are ahead in Clark County, which NEVER happens. I'll repeat: A normal midetrm has about a 5 percent tunrout edge to the GOP. This year in Clark, it's twice that.

How bad is it? I bet every Democrat is worried, perhaps even Reps. Dina Titus and especially Steven Horsford.

Those key state Senate districts:

Early Vote + Mail Ballots

SD 9 (+6.2)
Republican - 44.3%
Democrat - 38.1%
NP/3rd Party - 17.6%

SD 8 (+10.3)
Republican - 47.5%
Democrat - 37.2%
NP/3rd Party - 15.4%

SD 20 (+12.0)
Republican - 46.8%
Democrat - 34.8%
NP/3rd Party - 18.4%

More numbers when I have them.

DAY 2 UPDATE, NOON, 10/20: Statewide numbers are up. Dems only leading in tiny Mineral County so far.

DAY 2 UPDATE, 8 AM, 10/20:

Here are the numbers -- Republicans actually lead in Clark County in the early vote:

Clark on Sunday -- 3,032 to 2,902, GOP. 

Totals, with Dems first, total last:

EV: 7,251-7,266/17,512 (30,000 had voted at this time in 2010)

Mail: 2,129-2,091/4,978

Totals: 9.380-9.357/22,490

That's 41 percent each, meaning Republicans are 10 percentage points above their registration and Dems are 2 points under theirs.

Washoe, with GOP numbers first, total voted last:

EV: 2,731-2,052/5644

Mail: 1,182-764/2,314

Total: 3,913-2,816/7,958

That's 49 percent to 35 percent. So Dems just below registration and Republicans are 10 percent above. One thousand raw vote lead after two days.

Again, in CD4, which is heavily Democratic in Clark County (15 point Dem reg lead), here are the numbers: 2,047-1,878, Dems

 

DAY 2 UPDATE, 6:30 AM, 10/20:

I don't have the officisl report yet, but sources I trust tracking the numbers tell me Republicans outvoted Democrats in Clark County, which almost never happens (if it ever has) and certainly not since I have been tracking early voting the last two cycles.

The Sunday numbers:

DEM – 2,902

GOP – 3,033

REST – 1,269

Amazing. That means it's essentially a tie in Clark County. Yes, only two days of data. But if that continues -- how can it? -- as Don Meredith used to say, turn out the lights.

And look at these numbers, too.

SD 8 – 1,029 to 809 GOP up 

SD 9 – 696 to 621 GOP up

SD 20 – 953 to 729 GOP up

Not sure I'd push the panic button yet, Democrats. But that time may come after we see a week's worth of data.

DAY 2, 6:30 PM, 10/19:

Big drop in Washoe turnout on second day. Only 1,705 voted, down from 3,909 on first day. Republicans, 812; Democrats, 643. That's 48 percent to 38 percent. Actual reg: 38-36, GOP.

Total EV: 2,731, GOP; 2,052, Dems. GOP lead is 679 voters after only two days.

No new mail ballots, 2,314 returned, GOP has a 463-vote lead.

So total GOP lead so far in Washoe: 1,142 ballots. The lead was about half that in 2010.

 

 

DAY 1 WRAP, 8:45 AM, 10/19:

It's only the first day, but the Clark numbers were quite ominous for Democrats. They have a 13 percent voter reg edge, but the first day essentially was tied, even after rallies and the presence of California Rep. Xavier Becerra to energize the troops. The numbers:

Early voters: 4,386 Democrats to 4,273 Republicans. Just over 10,400 voted.

Mail: 2,128 Democrats to 2,091 Republicans.

It's a dead heat in Clark County so far. If that keeps up, the GOP wave will be huge. I have never seen it this close after a first day. In 2010, to remind you, Dems had a 2,000 vote lead after the first day and 17,000 people voted. The smaller the overall share of statewide votes that Clark County brings, the worse for Dems, too.

Percentages: Dems performed just under their registration (42 percent) while Republicans were 10 points above (41 percent).

In those three key Senate districts, more good news for Republicans:

SD9: GOP, 360-351

SD8: GOP, 453-338

SD20: GOP, 457-358

Even CD4 is close: 1,251-1,156, Dems

Some statewide numbers posted -- GOP leading in all areas:

Statewide turnout

 

--------------

 

Mea culpa, folks. Seems Washoe has decided to list those who haven't returned ballots but requested them, so actual lead is only about 1,000 votes for GOP. Clark has posted -- 10,000 turnout vs. 17,000 in 2010. Will have breakdown in AM.

UPDATED, 7 PM, 10/18 -- Sites in Washoe closed. Absentees and early votes after first day: 49 percent for GOP, 33 percent for Dems. Raw vote lead is just under 2,000. Just under 13,000 votes cast so far. The Washoe voter file indicates 3,800 people voted today -- 48 percent Republicans and 36 percent Democrats. That's about 400 fewer voters than turned out in 2010.

UPDATED, 3:40 PM, 10/18 --- First numbers of the season: Washoe absentees through Thursday -- 4,294 Republicans (49 percent) and 2,793 Democrats (32 percent). 8,761 have voted in all. Registration in Washoe is a 3 percent Republican edge. Only one day, but GOP starts with a 1,500-vote lead. Pretty good start. 

DAY 1: Keep an eye on the numbers today. I expect the Democrats to juice them as much as possible to show strength -- California Rep. Xavier Becerra is in Las Vegas to rally the faithful. But Republicans, favored in the top two statewide races (Gov./LG) and hoping to pull underdogs to upsets with their machine, are confident.

Some perspective and history to remember:

►The GOP has had about a 5 or 6 percent turnout edge in midterms. Despite that, the Democratic registration edge (60,000 in 2010), has allowed their candidates to survive, most notably Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. The Democrats have about a 5 percent statewide edge and about 13 percent in Clark County, where they hope to build up a firewall against losses in Washoe County, where the GOP now holds a 3 percent edge after being even the last two cycles.

►In 2010, the Democrats had 1,600 more voters than the GOP in Clark (8,000-6,400) on the first day, which meant the GOP had dramatically reduced its registration disadvantage. The Democrats held their registration but the Republicans were 6 percent above theirs on that first day. By the end of two weeks in Clark, the Republicans had voted 5 percent above their registration while the Democrats were just under theirs. With mail ballots and that voter registration edge, the Democrats had built a 25,000-vote firewall. I doubt that will be enough for various Democratic statewide candidates this cycle, with Washoe's shift and high rural turnout.

►Turnout generally is about 60 percent in off years. In 2010, it was 64 percent. But note how much higher rural turnout was. This gives the heavily GOP 15 counties a little bit more of the share of the vote -- it was 20 percent in 2010, just under Washoe, and Democratic-voter-rich Clark County was only 58 percent of the overall vote, 8 points below its actual percentage of registered voters.That's dangerous for Democrats.

►Keep an eye on Washoe and rural early voting turnout. In 2010, Clark early voting turnout was 39 percent with mail; Washoe was 36 percent with mail; and some of the rurals were above 40 percent. Those numbers will be important harbingers.

►The intangibles are more difficult to measure but none favor the Democrats except, in general, they have better, more experienced candidates: No Reid on the ballot to get the machine really cranking; Team Hutchoval, helped by the folks at Engage Nevada, with a better machine than in the past (these same folks helped save Dean Heller in 2012); and the possibility that way too many Democrats stay home without any major races and more than the usual GOP edge occurs because of people wanting to vote for Sandoval and against the margin tax.

I'll be tracking it every day.

 

 

 

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