Early voting blog, Primary 2016

Day 14, Friday, June 10: Huge day on the final day, as usual: Nearly 10,000 folks voted in Clark County. Final number of 76,500 far above last cycle's 61,000. But even with mail, the total is 90,192. That's only 10 percent.

Partisan totals are higher:

Democrats: 45,868, or 11.8 percent

Republicans: 36,125, or 13.2 percent

Bottom line: The CD4 turnout still looks to be about 25,000 or so when all is said and done, unless Election Day turnout is unusually high. And don't forget a few hundred rural votes could be important if it's close. 30 percent wins for sure, may take less than that. So 7,000 votes or so to become a nominee and almost-certain House member? That is something.

Those same numbers hold true for CD3. Can Roberson make up enough ground to overtake Tarkanian? Could a miracle occur and Fiore sneaks in above both of them? (Democrats are saying their prayers.) Only 7,000 votes needed here, too, perhaps.

The legislative primaries still seem to favor the incumbents with ground games because turnout will not get much above 20 percent. Unless the tax increase is toxic enough to overcome even bad candidates and bad campaigns. Nelson is in big trouble, which means Trowbridge is, too. As Seaman goes, so goes The Real Water Caucus?

The final numbers:









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   17658 13.7% 15744 11.8%    
CD4       18065 14.2%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 4227 17.9%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1875 13.3%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 1873 13.9%        
5 Baca-Ham 1430 13.9%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 1134 11.3%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1813 19.1%        
19 Edwards-Foust 1771 14.6%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 1415 14.0%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 2304 15.0%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 1629 13.3%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 1171 10.3%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 2858 20.3%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 8199 14.5%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   36125 13.2% 45868 11.8% 90192 10.1%

 

 

Day 13, Thursday, June 9: Biggest day yet Thursday -- 6.705 people voted. Total including mail with one day left: 79,670 or 9 percent

Democrats: 40,256, or 10.4 percent

Republicans: 32,118, or 11.8 percent.

Going to be a stretch for either party to get to 20 percent, but it could be close.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   15744 12.2% 13917 10.4%    
CD4       15789 12.4%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 3813 16.2%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1669 11.8%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 1609 12.0%        
5 Baca-Ham 1245 12.1%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 1015 10.1%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1566 16.5%        
19 Edwards-Foust 1647 13.5%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 1248 12.3%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 2013 13.1%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 1406 11.5%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 1039 9.1%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 2646 18.8%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 7190 12.7%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   32118 11.8% 40256 10.4% 79670 9.0%

 

Day 12, Wednesday, June 8: Turnout dropped off Wednesday -- 5,758 voted. So far in Clark County, turnout is at 59,896, which is higher than the 14 days of early voting in 2012 and close to the 61,000 of 2014. So it will be higher than both of the last cycle. Are people Peter Finch voters or are the incumbents turning out moderates?

It's still low, but: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Total with mail: 72,335, or 8.1 percent

Democrats: 36,392, 9.4 percent

Republicans: 29,258, 10.7 percent

Amazing how similar the numbers are in those two competitive congressional primaries (sorry, Jesse, yours ain't). A little more than 14,000 have cast votes in those two contests, meaning, as I long suspected, 10,000 votes should be more than enough to win because about 25,000 will turn out in both races, maybe slightly more in CD3. And if it only takes 30 percent to win those primaries, which is possible, it may only take 7,500 votes. That's amazing.

I am really wondering at this point how much the tax toxicity and the horrible transgender bathroom mailers might be cutting these GOP legislative incumbents. Yes, each district has its own dynamics, but if Erv nelson loses, my guess is Glenn Trowbridge does, too (he's nested there, and turnout is very high). And if both of those lose, others are going down, too.

Bottom line: When those early/mail votes post early on Election Night, we will know a lot about the wave or lack thereof. If a lot of The Real Water Caucus folks win, most will lose in November. But that would also mean some quality incumbents have fallen and that Gov. Brian Sandoval, money and ground games couldn't save them from the fringe that votes in these low-turnout affairs.

I repeat this, too: Only about 100-150 people are voting per day in those districts. Scary.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   14392 11.2% 12659 9.5%    
CD4       14286 11.2%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 3510 14.9%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1507 10.7%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 1408 10.5%        
5 Baca-Ham 1092 10.6%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 923 9.2%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1437 10.1%        
19 Edwards-Foust 1572 12.9%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 1130 11.1%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 1824 11.8%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 1228 10.0%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 945 8.3%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 2494 17.7%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 6540 11.6%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   29258 10.7% 36392 9.4% 72335 8.1%

 

 

Day 11, Tuesday, June 7: Biggest day yet -- 6,170 people voted in Clark County. Totals: 54,136 early and 11,787 mail, or 65,923. That's 7.4 percent. 

Democrats: 33,052, or 8.5 percent

Republicans: 26,744, or 9.8 percent

If numbers continue to ramp up in the last three days, both parties will be well over 10 percent for early/mail voting. Election Day turnout will be anywhere from 5 percent to 10 percent if history holds. So it's still going to be low.

Turnout in the key congressional primaries -- GOP in CD3 and Dems in CD3 -- is now up above 10 percent. The higher it gets in CD3, the better for Michael Roberson, I'd say. Can they get it to 25 percent by the end of the day Tuesday? In CD4, the Culinary and labor folks appear to be getting voters out for Ruben Kihuen, but if that turnout gets much above 20 percent, does that hurt him? Field matters, especially in primaries.

It seems clear that a quarter of voters will turn out in the Seaman-Nelson race, which could help Nelson overcome what insiders think is a significant Seaman edge. But I don't know a lot of Establishment Rs who feel good about that one.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   13361 10.4% 11662 8.7%    
CD4       12791 10.0%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 3242 13.7%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1369 9.7%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 1232 9.2%        
5 Baca-Ham 984 9.6%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 850 8.5%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1319 9.3%        
19 Edwards-Foust 1277 10.5%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 1054 10.4%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 1726 11.2%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 1095 8.9%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 871 7.7%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 2367 16.8%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 5770 10.2%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   26744 9.8% 33052 8.5% 65923 7.4%

 

 

 

Day 10, Monday, June 6: 5,593 voted in Clark County on Monday. Add in mail ballots and total is now 58,727 -- 10,762 are mail. Total is 6.6 percent, with Republicans (8.7 percent) and Democrats (7.6 percent) well above that number.

Raw numbers still above 2014 and 2012, although it seems unlikely GOP will reach 15 percent turnout (early/mail) of last cycle despite interest in those primaries. Democrats only had 10 percent last cycle and will surmount that; in 2012, Republicans had 14 percent and Democrats had 11 percent. Remember, too: If past is prologue, GOP turnout will be three or four points higher than Democrats on Election Day.

For those hoping that Establishment GOP types will not be wiped out -- and there is much fretting out there -- one sign of hope: There are a large nuber of absentee ballots in some of the race, which sophisticated and well-funded campaigns can generate. Could they save Michael Roberson and Erv Nelson and some of those Assembly tax-supporters? All of those camps are very, very worried by this point, I'd guess.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   12141 9.4% 10579 7.9%    
CD4       11114 8.7%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 2858 12.1%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1292 9.1%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 1096 8.1%        
5 Baca-Ham 911 8.9%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 783 7.8%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1184 8.3%        
19 Edwards-Foust 905 7.4%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 963 9.5%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 1630 10.6%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 1018 8.3%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 729 6.4%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 2065 14.6%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 4851 8.6%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   23804 8.7% 29494 7.6% 58727 6.6%

 

Day 9, Sunday, June 5: 4,872 voted Sunday, bringing the early/mail total to 52,623. That's just under 6 percent of all voters.

Context: In 2014, about 76,500 turned out by mail and for early voting, after all was said and done, or about 10 percent. Total turnout after Election Day was just under 16 percent. Democrats were 14 percent and GOP was 25 percent. In 2012, the numbers were not much different.

If you look at those two competitive congressional primaries (CD3 for Repubs and CD4 for Dems), you can see in the neighborhood of 10,000 people have voted. There seems no reason to believe that the eventual totals will be more than 25,000, if that. Only about 1,100 voters in those primaries are casting ballots every day, so it's reasonable to assume 16,000 or 17,000 will have voted by the end of early voting Friday (upticks possible as the week goes on), so 25,000 may be high.

It probably will take under 10,000 votes to win those nominations. And for the legislative races, just a few hundred votes. That's it.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   10821 8.4% 9615 7.2%    
CD4       9870 7.7%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 2474 10.5%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1230 8.7%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 980 7.3%        
5 Baca-Ham 838 8.1%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 736 7.4%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 1040 11.0%        
19 Edwards-Foust 800 6.6%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 907 8.9%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 1305 8.5%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 933 7.6%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 624 5.5%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 1761 12.5%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 4279 7.6%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   21133 7.7% 26576 6.8% 52623 5.9%

 

 

 

Day 8, Saturday, June 4: Second biggest day of the period and largest since the first day on Saturday: 5,348 voted. Totals: 37,500 have voted early at the polls, 10,251 by mail. That's 47,751, or 5.4 percent.

Democrats: 24,164, 6.2 percent

Republicans: 19,119, 7 percent

Not much new in the subdivisions. Look at it this way: About 1,000 people a day are voting in the congressional primaries and about 100 (!) a day are voting on average in those Assembly primaries. The Seaman-Nelson race has about 250 a day. 









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   9596 7.4% 8504 6.4%    
CD4       7945 6.2%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 2277 9.7%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 1089 7.7%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 906 6.7%        
5 Baca-Ham 793 7.7%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 695 6.9%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 872 9.2%        
19 Edwards-Foust 738 6.1%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 877 8.6%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 1062 6.9%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 858 7.0%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 514 4.5%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 1602 11.4%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 3925 7.0%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   19119 7.0% 24164 6.2% 47751 5.4%

 

Day 7, Friday, June 3: One week in the books, and steady as she goes. 4,142 people voted in Clark County on Friday, bringing the week's total to 32,152. That's about 25 percent more than voted in the first week two and four years ago. So there is more interest, mostly because of those competitive congressional primaries and some intense GOP legislative contests. Early voting in the second week traditionally increases significantly -- 37,000 voted early in Week 2 last cycle and 31,000 in 2012 -- so the chances of getting close to 20 percent, if historical trends hold, are good.

The total including mail ballots is 41,672, or just under 5 percent of all registared voters in Clark County. Republicans are above 6 percent, thanks to all of those competitive contests, while Democrats are just under 5.5 percent. But the number of votes needed to win any of these races will be very, very low.









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   8489 6.6% 7490 5.6%    
CD4       7945 6.2%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 1838 7.8%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 929 6.6%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 810 6.0%        
5 Baca-Ham 689 6.7%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 614 6.1%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 694 7.3%        
19 Edwards-Foust 669 5.5%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 756 7.5%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 978 6.3%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 748 6.1%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 438 3.8%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 1268 9.0%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 3460 6.1%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   16659 6.1% 21064 5.4% 41672 4.7%

Day 6, Thursday, June 2: Four thousand people voted in Clark County on Thursday, bringing the total early voted to 28,000. Yes, still well ahead of two and four years ago, mostly generated by high GOP turnout in those primaries, especially CD3, which is nearly two percentage points above the overall turnout. I can extrapolate better after one full week, but it appears now that the turnout will be at 20 percent-plus, higher in key races.

So I still think it won't take much more than 10,000 votes -- if that -- to win one of those key congressional primaries. 

Keep an eye on the SD6 primary between Erv Nelson and Victoria Seman. Not only has it become exceedingly ugly, with sick children and private Mormon elder conversations now at issue (don't ask): The turnout there is nearly 3 percentage points above the overall turnout, which means either Nelson is doing something right (lots of absentees, which could be his well-funded campaign) or that Seaman has energized the anti-tax base. Remember, even though it's relatively high, it's still....under 6 percent!

Those Assembly districts remain high, too, as you can see below. I am puzzled by the much higher turnout in Glenn Trowbridge's district (UPDATE: Astute observer points out Trowbridge district inside SD6. Now it makes sense.) and the amazingly low turnout in Brent Jones' district. 

 









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   7446 5.8% 6601 4.9%    
CD4       6941 5.4%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 1602 6.8%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 671 4.7%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 707 5.3%        
5 Baca-Ham 587 5.7%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 539 5.4%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 595 6.3%        
19 Edwards-Foust 593 4.9%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 648 6.4%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 894 5.8%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 643 5.3%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 379 3.3%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 1127 8.0%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 3042 5.4%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   14601 5.3% 18537 4.8% 36631 4.1%

 

Day 5, Wednesday, June 1: About 4,700 people voted early on Wednesday in Clark County, bringing the total to 24,000 -- or a little under what the totals were for seven days in 2014 and 2012. 7,600 have voted absentee, so the total is now 31,600, or 3.6 percent of the total registered electorate. Republicans (4.6 percent) are still outpacing Democrats (4.1 percent).

Turnout in key primaries remains well above the average, as you can see below. Ordinarily, I'd say that means incumbents or perceived incumbents (Michael Roberson) may have an advantage. But this year on the GOP side, with so many Republicans coming out to vote their spleens (hello, Donald J. Trump), the higher turnout may be cause for worry.

 









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   6494 5.0% 5718 4.3%    
CD4       6028 4.7%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 1366 5.8%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 610 4.3%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 584 4.3%        
5 Baca-Ham 485 4.7%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 451 4.5%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 471 5.0%        
19 Edwards-Foust 502 4.1%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 588 5.8%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 816 5.3%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 568 4.6%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 320 2.8%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 981 7.0%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 2654 4.7%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   12561 4.6% 16034 4.1% 31600 3.6%

 

 

Day 4, Tuesday, May 31: About 4,900 people voted early on Tuesday in Clark County, bringing the total to just under 19,300. That's well ahead of the pace of 2014 and 2012, years in which more than 24,500 voted in the first week. Those totals could be surpassed Wednesday. The total turnout, including the nearly 5,800 mail ballots cast, is still just 2.8 percent, although both parties, as you can see below, are higher -- 3.6 percent for Republicans and 3.3 percent for Democrats.

Tunrout in those three competitive congressional primaries continues to run slightly above the overall turnout percentages, but not by a huge amount. The highest turnouts are in that primary for Mark Lipparelli's state Senate seat and a few of the GOP Assembly primaries, too. The turnout in the bids by Glenn Trowbridge and Derek Armstrong to hold their seats after voting for taxes is relatively high, which is either a sign they are turning out their voters or their constituents are really mad at them. Turnout in Brent Jones' race is very low, which could be a good sign for him.

I am struck by how few votes it will take to win one of these legislative primaries, just a few hundred in some cases. Scary.

Four days of data is almost a third of the early data, so we may be seeing a trend that could push overall turnout above 20 percent. That could help some of these moderate Republicans, but I'd like more data (and some exit polls) to reach any definitive conlcusions.

 









    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %    
CD3   5046 3.9% 4541 3.4%    
CD4       4790 3.8%    
               
State Senate            
6 Nelson-Seaman 1023 4.3%        
Assembly              
2 Hambrick-Hurst 434 3.1%        
4 McArthur-Rezendes 427 3.2%        
5 Baca-Ham 369 3.6%        
9 Gardner-Orrock 364 3.6%        
13 Anderson-Sanson 336 3.5%        
19 Edwards-Foust 411 3.4%        
21 Armstrong-Jones 467 4.6%        
22 Pickard-Bunce 679 4.4%        
29 Silberkraus-Groves 460 3.8%        
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 267 2.3%        
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 751 5.3%        
               
Commission MK-Ross 2038 3.6%        
               
    GOP % DEM % TOTAL VOTED %
OVERALL   9791 3.6% 12891 3.3% 25075 2.8%

Day 3, Monday, May 30: Just under 4,500 people voted in Clark County, so about 500 more than on Sunday. The total is about 2.5 percent for both parties.

I have created a spreadsheet to make this easier to digest every day. Both parties are turning out at about the same rate. CD4 has highest turnout of the competitive congressional primaries, at 2.8 percent, but only slightly higher than that CD3 race on both sides.

The Seaman-Nelson trunout is significantly higher than the overall turnout for both parties. So are several of those comeptitive GOP Assembly primaries, especially Glenn Trowbridge's effort to hang on and Derek Armstrong's.










    GOP VOTED % DEM VOTED %      
CD3   3538 2.7% 3285 2.5%      
CD4       3565 2.8%      
                 
State Senate              
6 Nelson-Seaman 802 3.4%          
Assembly                
2 Hambrick-Hurst 293 2.1%          
4 McArthur-Rezendes 303 2.3%          
5 Baca-Ham 271 2.6%          
9 Gardner-Orrock 300 3.0%          
13 Anderson-Sanson 211 2.2%          
19 Edwards-Foust 325 2.7%          
21 Armstrong-Jones 373 3.7%          
22 Pickard-Bunce 500 3.2%          
29 Silberkraus-Groves 365 3.0%          
35 Jones-Blanchard-TJones 184 1.6%          
37 Trowbridge-Marchant 596 4.2%          
                 
Commission MK-Ross 1469 2.6%          
                 
            TOTAL VOTED %  
OVERALL   7077 2.6% 9700 2.5% 18571 2.1%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2, Sunday, May 29:

Significant dropoff on Sunday as just under 4,000 people voted in Clark County -- that's 2,000 fewer than Saturday. FIXED TO ADD MAIL TO THESE NUMBERS: Total turnout is now 9,930, or a little more than 1 percent. With mail (nothing new on Sunday), 14,113 -- that's 1.6 percent. Breakdown: 7,434 Democrats (1.9 percent turnout), 5,286 Republicans (1.9 percent turnout).

By this time in 2014, only 6,500 had voted (the second day pace -- 2,500 then -- also is well ahead of last cycle). In 2012, 7,000 had voted.

So people are more interested in this election than I thought -- at least so far. Again, only one-seventh of early voting/mail data is in. (Mail is same because no mail on Sunday.)

Some key numbers -- these are combined EV/mail:

►CD3: 2,564 Democrats (1.9 percent) and 2,741 Republicans (2 percent) have voted. So both about at overall turnout.

CD4: On the Democratic side in Clark County, 2,603 have voted. That's 2 percent.

Seaman-Nelson: 549 have voted, or 2.3 percent, so someone's getting voters out there.

Assembly: Still not a lot of votes to go on in those key GOP primaries. Most have under 200 votes cast. A small sampling of the contested districts show elevated turnout levels in key races -- 2 percent in Gardner-Orrock and 2.4 percent in Silberkraus-Groves. Higher it gets, I'd guess, better for incumbents. But so few votes, such an unconventional year....

Kirkpatrick-Ross: 1,062 Democrats have voted. That's 1.9 percent, also at the overall turnout.

So interest is higher than usual, and interest in those competitive districts is fueling it. Once again, my caveat: Two days does not a trend make.

--------

Early voting in Clark County, where the key congressional and legislative races are occurring, was 50 percent greater than last year’s first day and a record, but still gruesomely low.

Just under 6,000 voted in Southern Nevada on the first of 14 days of early voting -- the pre-Election Day ballots cast traditionally make up at least half of the total vote, and with mail, make up almost two-thirds. About 4,000 voted on the first day the last two cycles. There are 890,000 registered voters in Clark, so a little more than half a percent have turned out so far. With mail ballots – 4,100 returned so far – 10,000 have voted in Clark, or just above 1 percent.

The Washoe numbers are similarly low – just under 2,000 turned out, also under 1 percent. But I am going to concentrate on Clark on this blog – no statewide races this cycle to talk about in the primary (Joe will beat Sharron)  -- which will update every day.

Here are some thoughts on the first day of early voting in Clark (totals for the last two cycles are below):

►I don’t extrapolate a lot from one day, although last cycle’s first-day general election numbers were so jarring that I was able to predict the GOP wave 17 days before Election Day. Primaries are harder. Turnout was 16 percent overall in 2012 and 2014, with 112,000 and 123,000 votes cast, respectively. So you can see how small this sample is.

CD4: The Clark part of the district has 127,000 Democratic voters, which is 91 percent of the total. If there is 20 percent turnout, or 54,000 voters, it may take under 15,000 votes to win a three-and-a-half person race (Moose Arberry is the half). On Day One, 1,205 Democrats turned out and 714 mail ballots have been returned so far. So that’s 1.5 percent, or about 50 percent more than the overall turnout percentage the first day.

CD3: The Democratic side has 133,500 voters; the GOP side has 129,000 voters. Similar numbers apply here as in the CD4 race. A very small number of votes will be required to become a congressional nominee. On Day One, almost identical numbers of Democrats (1,165) and Republicans (1,167) turned out. Five hundred sixty Democratic absentees and 717 GOP absentees have been returned. That’s 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent, so I see a slight spike, especially in the Roberson-Tark race.

State Senate: I’ll keep an eye on the Victoria Seaman-Erv Nelson turnout in District Six, which has 23,500 Republican voters. It may take under 2,500 votes to win. I would guess higher turnout helps Nelson. On Day One, 184 Republicans voted and 231 mail ballots have been returned. So with that total, about 1.8 percent have voted, so you can see the percentage compared to the overall turnout.

Assembly: I will look for spikes in any of the districts where incumbents or challengers are being opposed by members of The Real Water caucus, the Brent Jones Gang.  Not much to see yet. So few votes will be cast in these races. A couple of samples: David-Gardner-Diana Orrock -- 42 voted, 81 absentees. That’s 1.2 percent. Stephen Silberkraus-Amy Groves – 136 and 74, or 1.7 percent. We’ll know more in all of these after a week or so, I’d say.

CCC: In District B, where the Marilyn Kirkpatrick-Steve Ross race is occurring, there are 56,000 Democrats. On Day One, 516 voted and 270 mail ballots are in. So, that’s 1.4 percent, a bit of a spike compared to overall.

 

----

2014

REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
775,859 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 45,883 5.91 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 61,774 7.96 %
MAIL TURNOUT 14,960 1.93 %
Total 122,617 15.80 %
NP REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
185,220 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 4,777 2.58 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 6,653 3.59 %
MAIL TURNOUT 1,672 0.90 %
Total 13,102 7.07 %
DEM REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
347,560 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 17,230 4.96 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 25,571 7.36 %
MAIL TURNOUT 6,375 1.83 %
Total 49,176 14.15 %
REP REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
243,079 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 23,876 9.82 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 29,550 12.16 %
MAIL TURNOUT 6,913 2.84 %
Total 60,339 24.82 %
 

 

 

 

 

2012

REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
690,357 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 40,511 5.87 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 56,449 8.18 %
MAIL TURNOUT 15,080 2.18 %
Total 112,040 16.23 %
NP REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
151,698 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 2,887 1.90 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 4,306 2.84 %
MAIL TURNOUT 1,489 0.98 %
Total 8,682 5.72 %
DEM REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
307,126 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 17,928 5.84 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 26,412 8.60 %
MAIL TURNOUT 6,699 2.18 %
Total 51,039 16.62 %
REP REGISTRATION & TURNOUT
231,533 REGISTERED VOTERS
Voting Method Turnout %/Reg
ELECTION DAY TURNOUT 19,696 8.51 %
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT 25,731 11.11 %
MAIL TURNOUT 6,892 2.98 %
Total 52,319 22.60 %

Comments: