by Jon Ralston Fri, 10/26/2012 - 22:58
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@AnjeanetteDamon "The state also opted to allow Northshore to continue providing rapid antigen tests to the public… t.co/VKICI9gpvp
16 hours 51 min ago.
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@AnjeanetteDamon Yes, there was a holiday weekend, but the gov or anyone else did not call a presser to announce wh… t.co/mAaMu4GiEe
16 hours 52 min ago.
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@AnjeanetteDamon "NV's own internal documents, however, indicate Northshore voluntarily stopped PCR testing days be… t.co/VMwpzcM6Nk
16 hours 53 min ago.
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Not much happening in Nevada in the aftermath of this bombshell besides more probing by journos and damage control… t.co/U8L2jvEp4v
16 hours 54 min ago.
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@joeygilbertinc @NVGOP This was the local NPR affiliate, FYI.
17 hours 17 min ago.
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Have never heard this on NPR: Before it played an interview with gov hopeful @joeygilbertinc, darling of @NVGOP, th… t.co/Yqu47KsadQ
17 hours 21 min ago.
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It never ceases to amaze me how many smart people are so dumb about trans issues.
Pro tip: Try meeting trans peopl… t.co/Bx51l8PmxG
17 hours 50 min ago.
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I learned from politicians to stay on message!
And, thanks, @BerggrenCRE! t.co/uijl4oyJU5
17 hours 54 min ago.
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Veteran legislator leaves -- too familiar story for Carson City, where the quality has become more strained in rece… t.co/29JfRhSjBW
18 hours 16 min ago.
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After I saw Liotta’s tour de force debut in “Something Wild,” I knew he would be a star. The intensity, manic energ… t.co/CQwli0X3Dd
18 hours 41 min ago.
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Great rundown of “the primary is over” debate via @s_golonka, with assists from @MichelleRindels and @RileySnyder. t.co/33w88DGjUA
20 hours 46 min ago.
UPDATED: SOS has updated statewide numbers. Democrats up 10 in early vote, GOP has slight edge in mail. 350,000-plus have voted, 28 percent of all active voters.
The Democrats slowed down a bit on Friday in Clark County, extending their lead by 4,000 ballots, the party's smallest daily lead since the second day of early voting.
But combining their current early-vote lead -- 37,932 -- with their absentee ballot edge -- 1,904 -- and their lead after the first week in the South is 39,836 voters over the GOP.
For those insisting on 2008 comparisons -- and I have said that is apples (wave) and oranges (struggle) -- a 40,000-voter lead for the Democrats after the first week is 5,000 fewer than four years ago. I can't believe the GOP will crow about that (actually, I would).
At the end of '08 early voting, the Democrats got to an 83,000-voter lead (21 percentage points), and Barack Obama ended up winning Clark County by 19 points. If the pattern holds this year -- the Democrats had a 38,000-voter lead in the second week four years ago -- the lead should get to about 70,000 this year. If it doesn't, that may be a danger sign for the Democrats.
The percentage lead is surely going to be smaller unless the Democrats change the pattern of second weeks, which is when the GOP gets closer. It is 49-33 now -- just slightly above the 46-31 registration lead -- so it may shrink to close to 10 or so by next Friday.
Remember, the Republicans always have a turnout advantage, so that will not be that surprising. But the bigger it gets, the more they can use their expected Election Day edge (assuming there are any voters left!--nearly 30 percent of voters already have cast ballots in Clark County) to cut into the margin.
In Washoe, the Democrats won Friday by 21 votes. The count now is: 22,442, D; 21,402, R; 8,745, others. Absentees have not been updated, but the GOP had a 300-vote lead there.
It seems clear that the president will not win the swing county by double digits this year (unless he is blowing out Romney among independents, which is unlikely), as he did in '08. But if he is holding his own among indies, Obama will still win the state if the Clark firewall holds. Watch the second week in the Biggest Little City -- it could tell us a lot.
Bottom line from these Clark numbers: The state still leans Obama, but I wouldn't put it in the bank just yet, if I were the Democrats. Let's see what happens this weekend and during the next five days.
Premium subscribers will receive more analysis of these first week's numbers later today, including plugging some actual numbers into recently completed polling, looking at down-ticket races and some extrapolation of what's to come.
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