by Jon Ralston Fri, 10/26/2012 - 06:20
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@jeneps Miss you, too!
2 hours 52 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy People are catching on, day by day. The RJ should be called to account by @CJR or @Poynter and others. T… t.co/I9DISkDCvb
2 hours 53 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy The RJ's powers that be may think we @TheNVIndy care that they ignore us or steal our stuff. We don't. W… t.co/tr6eA8KOqc
2 hours 56 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy Whether it is orders from on high or editors sacrificing whatever integrity they once had, they are purp… t.co/oTNl0b43N2
2 hours 59 min ago.
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@TheNVIndy The "newspaper" has lost credibility and readers since Adelson bought it, hemorrhaged quality staffers a… t.co/3nfhz4Dccs
3 hours 1 min ago.
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The question is why would Adelson's editors deprive readers of debates that could help them make decisions. Could i… t.co/Dheinw6nLF
3 hours 4 min ago.
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Permit me to tell you just how low the state of journalism has sunk at Adelson's newspaper in NV. There were three… t.co/82YaslfEBg
3 hours 7 min ago.
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@LoganDobson I just noticed your new avatar!
3 hours 15 min ago.
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It's not easy to do a debate with five candidates, but we covered a lot of ground. Big race being watched nationall… t.co/YYFZVohAh7
3 hours 17 min ago.
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It's on now! t.co/5qDOOHBZlI
18 hours 2 min ago.
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“During his years in public service, Adam Laxalt has unapologetically defended the Second Amendment. At a time when… t.co/SFuP9ysbNk
20 hours 17 min ago.
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The Vegas Golden Knights are a blue-collar team and Vegas is a blue-collar city. t.co/sH7Rso6KgO
20 hours 51 min ago.
It's deja vu all over again.
The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week.
With a week to go, that would put the Democrats about halfway to the lead they had in 2008 -- 83,000. I don't think they will get there, but they don't have to. Obama won the state by 12 points (Clark by 19) with that lead. All he needs to do is be in double digits in Clark, and he will win Nevada unless there is a landslide in Washoe, which does not appear to be happening (there were no numbers posted for Washoe as I write this).
The latest Clark numbers (mail and early votes):
Democrats -- 105,674, or 50 percent
Republicans -- 69,512, or 33 percent
Others -- 37, 264, or 17 percent
So a quarter of all registered voters have cast ballots in Clark County. If turnout is 80 percent, that means about a third of the vote is in.
Some quick math. Let's be conservative and say both presidential candidates are only getting 85 percent of their bases. So:
President Obama -- 89,823 votes
Mitt Romney -- 59,085 votes
That leaves 63,542 votes to be apportioned. Let's give 3 percent to the third-party candidates and none of the above: 1,906 votes
So that would mean 61,636 votes left to divide between Obama and Romney. Say Romney is winning that pool by 10 percentage points. That means he gets 33,900 votes and Obama gets 27,736.
Bottom line: Obama would still be ahead now by 24,000 votes in Clark County. If he stays close in Washoe and that lead keeps building down here, the rural onslaught will not save Romney.
So keep an eye on that edge and realize the dynamic remains the same: Romney needs a big win among indies and needs to get a decent lead in Washoe, where the returned ballots have been close.
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