by Jon Ralston Fri, 10/26/2012 - 06:20
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I should clarify: I meant candidate for state or local office in NV. Broidy also gave to @Tell_Michelle_ , who is r… t.co/y9b16WQNcF
4 hours 16 min ago.
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You should read this great Kevin Williamson piece unless you want to prove his point: "Without credible journalism,… t.co/az3GHtEQxA
5 hours 22 min ago.
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If this ever gets on TV, it will leave a mark. t.co/SqL2AgN6QW
5 hours 53 min ago.
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The school board is impressive. t.co/PANYV31ItB
6 hours 21 min ago.
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“I don’t think any of us realistically thought that we’d be here to review a report that clearly violates Nevada la… t.co/65Z0fCeGM3
6 hours 40 min ago.
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Rudy's on a train to nowhere, halfway down the line
He don't want to get there, but he needs time. t.co/DOOgH20jy5
7 hours 5 min ago.
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I repeat again: Only one NV candidate, @adamlaxalt, took money from Broidy, who maxed out to him. Team Laxalt refus… t.co/WE4fVt4y7Z
7 hours 36 min ago.
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@justinjm1 Sure he does....
19 hours 51 min ago.
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@justinjm1 He could have done both.
19 hours 56 min ago.
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Sounds like some serious locker-room talk between Trump and Putin.
"Mr. President, what was the context in which y… t.co/7fVp53jltB
20 hours 3 min ago.
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Good job leaking, House Repubs! t.co/GRZMd25FzS
20 hours 18 min ago.
It's deja vu all over again.
The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week.
With a week to go, that would put the Democrats about halfway to the lead they had in 2008 -- 83,000. I don't think they will get there, but they don't have to. Obama won the state by 12 points (Clark by 19) with that lead. All he needs to do is be in double digits in Clark, and he will win Nevada unless there is a landslide in Washoe, which does not appear to be happening (there were no numbers posted for Washoe as I write this).
The latest Clark numbers (mail and early votes):
Democrats -- 105,674, or 50 percent
Republicans -- 69,512, or 33 percent
Others -- 37, 264, or 17 percent
So a quarter of all registered voters have cast ballots in Clark County. If turnout is 80 percent, that means about a third of the vote is in.
Some quick math. Let's be conservative and say both presidential candidates are only getting 85 percent of their bases. So:
President Obama -- 89,823 votes
Mitt Romney -- 59,085 votes
That leaves 63,542 votes to be apportioned. Let's give 3 percent to the third-party candidates and none of the above: 1,906 votes
So that would mean 61,636 votes left to divide between Obama and Romney. Say Romney is winning that pool by 10 percentage points. That means he gets 33,900 votes and Obama gets 27,736.
Bottom line: Obama would still be ahead now by 24,000 votes in Clark County. If he stays close in Washoe and that lead keeps building down here, the rural onslaught will not save Romney.
So keep an eye on that edge and realize the dynamic remains the same: Romney needs a big win among indies and needs to get a decent lead in Washoe, where the returned ballots have been close.
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