I have said and written many times that registration is not destiny. But those numbers mean something -- and 2016 is starting to look like 2012 and 2008 in Nevada, presidential years in which the Democrats did very well.
The latest numbers show the Democrats padded their statewide lead by about 5,000 voters in April, out-registering Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. This came despite the herculean efforts of the conservative registration outfit, Engage NV, which is trying to make up for the biennial ineptitude of the state GOP and a surging Democratic Party eager to atone for the 2014 wipeout.
The numbers tell an ominous story for the GOP:
►Democrats now have a 64,635-voter lead over the GOP, or more than 5 percent (40-35). Democrats have added 47,606 voters this year; Republicans have added 30,583. Thus, the Democrats have increased their lead by about 17,000 voters. So the Democrats, mostly because of same-day registration for the Feb. 20 presidential caucus, have made up for recent losses because of voter roll attrition. These gains have been felt in congressional districts and legislative districts, too, widening Democratic leads or cutting into GOP edges. (See below.) For instance, in Clark County, the Democrats now have a nearly 113,000-voter edge -- that's a 13 percentage point edge.
►In 2012, when President Obama won the state, the Democrats led by only 37,000 voters at this point; they ended up with a 90,000-voter edge by Election Day. In 2008, when Obama won the state, Democrats had a 51,000-voter edge at this point; they ended up with a 100,000-voter lead by Election Day. Republicans can point to Rep. Joe Heck and Sen. Dean Heller holding on despite the Democratic wave in 2012, but flawed Democratic contenders helped. And look how far ahead of those 2008 and 2012 paces the Democrats are.
Smart Republicans are worried about this trend, whether it is caused by Donald Trump or the Reid Machine or some combination thereof. The GOP can hold out hope that the growing nonpartisan registration, now at almost 19 percent, might favor their slate. But as Harry Reid seeks to go out with a bang, these numbers indicate the Democrats' chances of winning Nevada in the presidential race, keeping Reid's seat, taking two competitive congressional seats from the GOP and turning the Legislatrure blue again are not pie in the sky.
Some of the breakdowns in key areas:
Clark County - Democratic gain of 5,645
End of March: 12.6% (107,091) advantage
End of April: 12.9% (112,822) advantage
Washoe County - Democratic loss of 49
End of March: 2.2% (5,184) disadvantage
End of April: 2.2% (5,231) disadvantage
Congressional District Highlights
Congressional District 3 – Democratic gain of 1,049
End of March: 1.0% (3,274) advantage
End of April: 1.3% (4,350) advantage
Congressional District 4 - Democratic gain of 1,514
I have said and written many times that registration is not destiny. But those numbers mean something -- and 2016 is starting to look like 2012 and 2008 in Nevada, presidential years in which the Democrats did very well.
The latest numbers show the Democrats padded their statewide lead by about 5,000 voters in April, out-registering Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. This came despite the herculean efforts of the conservative registration outfit, Engage NV, which is trying to make up for the biennial ineptitude of the state GOP and a surging Democratic Party eager to atone for the 2014 wipeout.
The numbers tell an ominous story for the GOP:
►Democrats now have a 64,635-voter lead over the GOP, or more than 5 percent (40-35). Democrats have added 47,606 voters this year; Republicans have added 30,583. Thus, the Democrats have increased their lead by about 17,000 voters. So the Democrats, mostly because of same-day registration for the Feb. 20 presidential caucus, have made up for recent losses because of voter roll attrition. These gains have been felt in congressional districts and legislative districts, too, widening Democratic leads or cutting into GOP edges. (See below.) For instance, in Clark County, the Democrats now have a nearly 113,000-voter edge -- that's a 13 percentage point edge.
►In 2012, when President Obama won the state, the Democrats led by only 37,000 voters at this point; they ended up with a 90,000-voter edge by Election Day. In 2008, when Obama won the state, Democrats had a 51,000-voter edge at this point; they ended up with a 100,000-voter lead by Election Day. Republicans can point to Rep. Joe Heck and Sen. Dean Heller holding on despite the Democratic wave in 2012, but flawed Democratic contenders helped. And look how far ahead of those 2008 and 2012 paces the Democrats are.
Smart Republicans are worried about this trend, whether it is caused by Donald Trump or the Reid Machine or some combination thereof. The GOP can hold out hope that the growing nonpartisan registration, now at almost 19 percent, might favor their slate. But as Harry Reid seeks to go out with a bang, these numbers indicate the Democrats' chances of winning Nevada in the presidential race, keeping Reid's seat, taking two competitive congressional seats from the GOP and turning the Legislatrure blue again are not pie in the sky.
Some of the breakdowns in key areas:
Clark County - Democratic gain of 5,645
End of March: 12.6% (107,091) advantage
End of April: 12.9% (112,822) advantage
Washoe County - Democratic loss of 49
End of March: 2.2% (5,184) disadvantage
End of April: 2.2% (5,231) disadvantage
Congressional District Highlights
Congressional District 3 – Democratic gain of 1,049
End of March: 1.0% (3,274) advantage
End of April: 1.3% (4,350) advantage
Congressional District 4 - Democratic gain of 1,514
End of March: 9.7% (30,392) advantage
End of April: 10.0% (31,923) advantage
Senate District Highlights
Senate District 5 – Democratic gain of 192
End of March: 5.1% (3,165) advantage
End of April: 5.3% (3,367) advantage
Senate District 6 – Democratic gain of 286
End of March: 5.2% (3,370) advantage
End of April: 5.5% (3,656) advantage
Senate District 15 – Democratic gain of 29
End of March: 2.3% (1,755) disadvantage
End of April: 2.3% (1,730) disadvantage
State Assembly District Highlights
Assembly District 5 – Democratic Gain of 179
End of March: 6.6% (1,892) advantage
End of April: 7.0% (2,070) advantage
Assembly District 8 – Democratic gain of 157
End of March: 14.8% (3,694) advantage
End of April: 15.0% (3,849) advantage
Assembly District 9 - Democratic gain of 157
End of March: 7.3% (2,120) advantage
End of April: 7.6% (2,284) advantage
Assembly District 10 - Democratic gain of 268
End of March: 23.7% (5,225) advantage
End of April: 24.2% (5,494) advantage
Assembly District 21 - Democratic gain of 96
End of March: 7.2% (2,109) advantage
End of April: 7.4% (2,210) advantage
Assembly District 29 - Democratic gain of 96
End of March: 3.2% (1,056) advantage
End of April: 3.4% (1,157) advantage
Assembly District 34 - Democratic gain of 157
End of March: 12.8% (3,784) advantage
End of April: 13.1% (3,939) advantage
Assembly District 35 - Democratic gain of 174
End of March: 5.3% (1,741) advantage
End of April: 5.7% (1,918) advantage
Assembly District 41 - Democratic gain of 145
End of March: 7.2% (2,129) advantage
End of April: 7.5% (2,274) advantage
Comments: