by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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@TonstantWeader1 @ChuckRoss33 @jdubya65 @ShirtNinjaFairy That's not what I did.
5 hours 21 min ago.
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@ColtonBrowder Thank you.
5 hours 34 min ago.
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cc: @SenDeanHeller t.co/0vmtxlofkn
5 hours 38 min ago.
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@spiritofrenault @MilliganSusan @MaddowBlog @Lawrence @KeithOlbermann Bye Humor-Impaired, Louis.
6 hours 22 min ago.
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I first saw Penny Marshall in "The Odd Couple," one of the best sitcoms of all time (even better than the movie). "… t.co/wUbwrky0zi
6 hours 39 min ago.
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The history-makers:
Backus
Benitez-Thompson
Bilbray-Axelrod
Carlton
Cohen
Duran
Gorelow
Hansen
Hardy
Jauregui
Krasn… t.co/w4ydrywWFu
6 hours 51 min ago.
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This graphic is only part of the great content on @TheNVIndy's Instagram account. Follow us: thenevadaindependent
7 hours 9 min ago.
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@RecalRedhead Boo hoo.
7 hours 13 min ago.
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Hello, #nvleg. t.co/QsUodp7rgs
7 hours 24 min ago.
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@mayura08 Good tweet.
7 hours 27 min ago.
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@KarenWiehl Welcome to the Humor-Impaired Club!
7 hours 31 min ago.
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@bbkld5 It's a living.
8 hours 6 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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