by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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"I was the only federal candidate in Southern Nevada that supported Donald Trump to the end of the campaign." t.co/9fcFuWyiSK
16 hours 49 min ago.
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Well, look what came in the mail today. It's campaign season already in NV as the GOP tries to recall three state s… t.co/IFp5F1iBmI
17 hours 21 min ago.
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Not enough Nazis out today. Sad! t.co/leBtp2GIXZ
19 hours 19 min ago.
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Adelson columnist who introed @dannytarkanian mocked:
@SenDeanHeller
Gerald Ford
Mitt Romney
John McCain
Bob Dole
19 hours 33 min ago.
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The Washington Examiner posted video of the Tark rally and with a great headline for him. t.co/d1uJoACZwo
19 hours 50 min ago.
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@EsotericCD @jpodhoretz @justkarl @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom It is terrible w/a mixed-up message. But worth it… t.co/TVInl0j0m2
20 hours 11 min ago.
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@justkarl @jpodhoretz @EsotericCD @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom This is correct.
20 hours 13 min ago.
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@EsotericCD @justkarl @jpodhoretz @ForecasterEnten @proteinwisdom I figured it was because Decision Desk tracked To… t.co/8GeNep3paK
20 hours 18 min ago.
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Please be nice. t.co/DNcVVf0FyZ
20 hours 21 min ago.
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Comedian says North Korea should bomb Reno.
Reno fights back.
Comedian then suggests NK bomb...Buffalo! Now I'm mad.
t.co/r1tkxy1Uz0
20 hours 50 min ago.
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@jpodhoretz @ForecasterEnten I was going to send you that scene!
21 hours 5 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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