by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
-
@AdamLaxalt @JoeLombardoNV @VoteFiore @Chattah4Nevada @VoteJimMarchant Er, Dave Loggins, that is.
5 hours 6 min ago.
-
@AdamLaxalt @JoeLombardoNV @VoteFiore @Chattah4Nevada @VoteJimMarchant Heard from two GOP insiders the Trump trip t… t.co/u4b3avFLEL
5 hours 11 min ago.
-
The base speaks?
Dean Heller gets...nada..
And Adam Laxalt finished...third.
There's something happening here, w… t.co/DBvvKAYPl6
8 hours 46 min ago.
-
@AdamLaxalt @JoeLombardoNV @VoteFiore @Chattah4Nevada @VoteJimMarchant Please come to Nevada for the springtime,
Yo… t.co/N8AdIBNMUp
9 hours 34 min ago.
-
Rumbles from DC to NV of Trump visit before 6/14 primary here. Can't wait!
Does this mean @AdamLaxalt needs a boos… t.co/ZfgG218hfG
9 hours 50 min ago.
-
I usually block people who say "Happy Monday," but I'll make an exception only because this explainer by… t.co/jMpZcOr8eY
10 hours 34 min ago.
-
(Looks for list of @Consililv clients) t.co/ZruxjjklP3
11 hours 56 min ago.
-
"However, gaming analysts are beginning to question whether rising inflation, which has pushed prices higher for ga… t.co/nU6OEzq8sH
16 hours 56 min ago.
-
Excellent look at the race for Clark County sheriff, an immensely powerful position where the anointed undersheriff… t.co/sJfJIATXZJ
17 hours 23 min ago.
-
Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
NV fact: On this date in 1955, The Dunes opened, the 10th resort on the Las… t.co/KYlWdHaRAF
18 hours 6 min ago.
-
@NathanWurtzel Yes.
1 day 7 hours ago.
-
@NathanWurtzel No. I already responded yesterday to someone who suggested otherwise.
1 day 7 hours ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
----
If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
Comments: