by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
-
If you are a Democrat and worried about a red wave in Nevada, this is the section of the CNN crosstabs that should… t.co/AUpyfvhres
12 hours 39 min ago.
-
Shockingly, some wealthy election deniers are supporting election denier Jim Marchant for the office that oversees… t.co/q7Tsqw82yB
12 hours 57 min ago.
-
Yep. t.co/JBU0HxCpqT
13 hours 3 min ago.
-
The only poll that matters... t.co/N90XGFx47L
13 hours 19 min ago.
-
@Bencjacobs @burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Storey.
(Requisite shaking of fist at national media.)
13 hours 21 min ago.
-
@burgessev @TheNVIndy @OHPredictive I'm agnostic.
13 hours 21 min ago.
-
@TheNVIndy @OHPredictive Guys, I'll know more once early voting in Nevada starts two weeks from Saturday. But our p… t.co/HiJMaN9rwj
13 hours 25 min ago.
-
"CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader"
Tell me about it!… t.co/1wFkJthNGB
13 hours 33 min ago.
-
Our @s_golonka knows his stuff. Tune in! t.co/m7X775pMia
13 hours 39 min ago.
-
ICYMI: Here's my discussion of the Nevada Senate race with the legendary @JudyWoodruff last night on @pbsnewshour.… t.co/qmPqIR4Ks2
13 hours 48 min ago.
-
"Cortez Masto declined a request for an interview for this story."
Neither U.S. Senate candidate would do a sitdow… t.co/AxuLu2l1dS
14 hours 22 min ago.
-
Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 2010, a court found Scott Ashjian of the fledgling Tea Part… t.co/Y1fHPRGCIL
15 hours 12 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
----
If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
Comments: