by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
-
@Scon40Steven Pro tip: Read the story.
50 min 16 sec ago.
-
Folks, PR/ad firms do not make $500,000 donations to PACs. Half a million dollars! It does not happen. This is so c… t.co/QXiJliKrhu
1 hour 37 min ago.
-
I've covered politics for a long time, never seen anything like this: Dem ad firm working for ballot question pushe… t.co/U0mnIcOzH0
1 hour 38 min ago.
-
@redsteeze #WeMatter
1 hour 57 min ago.
-
In 15 minutes or so, we are going to post a piece about a campaign maneuver that is unlike any I have ever seen and… t.co/0e7A8q3Axg
2 hours 38 sec ago.
-
Trump is underwater in NV. t.co/33GpzQCor0
2 hours 56 min ago.
-
Nasty shot at @GovSandoval. Oh, and there is no better person to rev up Dem turnout in Dem stronghold than Obama. B… t.co/eyuQIfAO7z
2 hours 57 min ago.
-
Of all of the cool features we have done, this is one of the coolest. Timelines for the two major NV races for gov… t.co/4O2KQ5hAMV
3 hours 2 min ago.
-
@TVMoJoe Impossible to tell.
3 hours 4 min ago.
-
Thanks, Eric. We believe we are the wave of the future. We owe much of it to @evanasmith. t.co/GS0cbqC6WF
3 hours 28 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
----
If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
Comments: