by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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1 seems too many, tbh. t.co/IEmkijqpoz
1 hour 44 min ago.
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@GuinnCenter This is just the kind of argument I would expect from an un-elected think tank.....
2 hours 10 min ago.
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@MichelleRindels @JackieValley The length of this introduction by the fiscal analysts to the hearing convinces me t… t.co/qVG7LoCH4i
2 hours 16 min ago.
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Mike Alastuey, a fiscal maven, uses the word "occludes" in his presentation, and I am now as happy as I can be.
2 hours 27 min ago.
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@katherinemiller We once had a really eccentric neurosurgeon as lieutenant governor.
First-term joke: "I guess you… t.co/bsUEb8iTdC
2 hours 28 min ago.
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@TaraRoss Don't get me started!
2 hours 38 min ago.
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@MichelleRindels @JackieValley Most amazing thing about that unelected commission that will set the table for new e… t.co/BOv21dhIRr
2 hours 47 min ago.
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@MichelleRindels @JackieValley This is the amendment:
t.co/RIJt4nc7D0
2 hours 54 min ago.
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@MichelleRindels @JackieValley Aguero is now going through the bill -- or should I say an amendment prepared for th… t.co/VoCyquQNXF
2 hours 54 min ago.
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@MichelleRindels @JackieValley I believe this presentation will be over when the bill takes effect in two years.
3 hours 11 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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