by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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@rjlambe @alanamounce “I don’t think it matters what happens in New Hampshire or Iowa, which are not representative… t.co/vno2SLvAUZ
36 min 2 sec ago.
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@rjlambe @alanamounce “It’s now very fluid who will be the nominee.”
Harry Reid
39 min 2 sec ago.
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Event at Bellagio kicks off with two of the most powerful people in NV politics — @rjlambe and @alanamounce — and s… t.co/kGjbvkDy89
43 min 28 sec ago.
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I'll be heading over soon to the Democratic event at the Bellagio w/14 of the presidential candidates. My role at t… t.co/IuapM31rhk
3 hours 47 min ago.
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@nbeaudrot @TheNVIndy Depends on pollster.
4 hours 37 min ago.
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CBS poll in NV shows Biden up 10, Sanders and Warren tied for second, just as the @TheNVIndy poll showed. t.co/oxzsBRiDL1
4 hours 47 min ago.
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"Nevada’s occupational licensing boards are barely regulated at all. Consequently, each occupational licensing boar… t.co/ShYUd1XiQE
5 hours 47 min ago.
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"Some see it as a scandal barely averted, one that would have changed Boulder City’s small-town feel forever. Other… t.co/GOhm9vuB4o
6 hours 8 min ago.
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Our @orrinjohnson on the pros and cons of government regs. t.co/f2UTL5D06H
6 hours 28 min ago.
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On the day the Democrats once again make Nevada the center of the political universe,Team Trump's campaign will mak… t.co/7cewDYAkL0
6 hours 50 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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