by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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#SITN
The first step towards recovery, New Hampshire, is acceptance of a new hashtag and state motto.
Be First or… t.co/hotl8Isu0m
20 hours 13 min ago.
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"In reality, however, there are no wild mustangs in NV — only feral ones. Additionally, as broadly as SB90 is writt… t.co/lIEIiNFvsH
20 hours 34 min ago.
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Our @jlnevadasmith with perspective on the governor's appointment to arguably the most important state board of a j… t.co/XjhjjSs6PJ
21 hours 4 min ago.
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Sands, sans Las Vegas, via @howardstutz. t.co/LbUcoady75
21 hours 50 min ago.
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Our @TheNVIndy team has the breakdown of which legislators raised the most as part of our Follow the Money series.… t.co/yyCr31hQXt
22 hours 13 min ago.
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NV should be going first for obvious reasons -- diversity, true battleground, more fun than IA and NH combined.
Bu… t.co/MCGyRs1MtF
1 day 22 hours ago.
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Same nonsense NH pulled during the 2008 cycle, thundering about how no one will tell it when to set its primary. Th… t.co/ggdjNAqR8f
1 day 22 hours ago.
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NH is not representative of anything at all except a tiny place with four electoral votes that thinks it is are is… t.co/nUKba2BThe
1 day 22 hours ago.
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So the senator from the Be First or Cry state weighs in on new DNC calendar, saying the place with the whitest priv… t.co/r8vnYRHMhW
1 day 22 hours ago.
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From this @rjlambe memo on the new DNC calendar, which shows why #WeMatter:
t.co/SYZWxmOuLd t.co/Nhs38GW2o8
1 day 23 hours ago.
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"Nevada's week of in-person early voting starts 10 days before the primary election, and mail ballots will drop eve… t.co/dBvs3z5qdP
1 day 23 hours ago.
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"For the first time in 50 years, NH and IA will no longer have a stranglehold on the start of the presidential nomi… t.co/2ZRAgPofuc
1 day 23 hours ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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