by Jon Ralston Wed, 10/31/2012 - 06:20
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We are proud of having one of the more ideologically diverse Opinion pages in the country @TheNVIndy. t.co/AsPaQ2m9Hq
9 hours 47 min ago.
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Great, insightful, feisty panel. Thoroughly enjoyed it. t.co/6LWxfdtcFg
10 hours 33 min ago.
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I'm moderating this one, and I'm way overdressed. @matthewjdowd is wearing the t-shirt! t.co/XxaKqqv4m4
12 hours 35 min ago.
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Starting in an hour! #TribFest17 t.co/gyK2icI0Ka
12 hours 56 min ago.
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Amazingly candid conversation with Haberman and Nocera journo families moderated by @TexasTribune Editor @eramshaw. #TribFest17
14 hours 28 sec ago.
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@bbkld5 @TheNVIndy Too soon.
14 hours 12 min ago.
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Now would be a great time to break big news because @maggieNYT (still on her phone) is about to be on a panel.… t.co/aloHJSnCXI
14 hours 26 min ago.
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tfw Robert Walden approaches you at #TribFest17 and you feel cool and then you remember how long ago Lou Grant was on and you feel old.
14 hours 32 min ago.
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#ManofthePeople t.co/ZEUsCXIhkd
14 hours 47 min ago.
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At #TribFest17, Jill Abramson moderates all-star journo panel: @JoshuaGreen, @elistokols, @amychozick and… t.co/zXVzaqOcRb
15 hours 37 min ago.
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This is the attention-seeking clown who said Obama pretended to be a foreign-exchange student and who is now Adelso… t.co/Rkjqo51lIU
15 hours 59 min ago.
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@MeghinDelaney @brianduggan Yes, Brian, if you want to see a city with no redeeming features, go there.
16 hours 3 min ago.
Update: Latest statewide numbers show just how close Washoe is -- 315 votes separate the parties -- and how robustly the rurals continue to turn out. Democrats still have a 35,000-vote statewide lead, or 6 percentage points. Here are the latest numbers.
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If you had any doubts that 2012 is not 2008, doubt no more.
The Democrats survived two consecutive days of early voting sites being in GOP-friendly territory by extending their lead in Clark County to more than 50,000 voters. (Statewide, the Republicans actually turned out more voters than the Democrats on Monday.) The wave of 2008 has become a high tide of 2012 -- dangerous to the GOP, but, perhaps, not fatal.
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
The polls I trust still show the president ahead by a few points, so that tells me Obama is holding his own among indies, which is the key to the election now. The last three days of '08 had the biggest turnout, so we'll see if that pattern holds.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 175,715, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 124,176, or 34 percent
Others -- 67,665, or 18 percent
So the turnout relative to the registration lead (15 points) now slightly favors the Republicans. Those actual numbers: Democratic turnout is 45 percent, and GOP turnout is just above 47 percent. So the Republican turnout edge could well be 3 points or so in Clark by the end of early/mail voting, which could mean it gets to 5 or more after Election Day.
That's not enough to make up for the Democratic registration edge, but if independents vote overwhelmingly for Romney, could there be a Nov. 6 surprise?
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