Democratic pollster: Miller up 8 on Laxalt; SOS race very close

Secretary of State Ross Miller has an 8 percentage point lead on Adam Laxalt in the race for attorney general while Treasurer Kate Marshall has a 2 percentage point lead, well within the margin of error, over state Sen. Barbara Cegasvke in the contest for secretary of state.

Those are the findings of a poll taken last month -- and before the heavy advertising began in the AG's race -- by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a well-known Democratic polling firm. The survey was conducted for iVote, which is the Democratic Party-aligned outfit trying to protect voting rights across the country. It was a statewide, live-caller poll of 600 likley voters (4 percent margin of error).

Those numbers comport with private polling I have been told about. The firm, in a polling memo I have attached here, puts the best face on the results, pointing out that Gov. Brian Sandoval is leading the GOP ticket and these two down-ticket Democrats, especially Miller, are doing well.

Miller actually is at 50 percent in the poll -- he leads 50-42 -- which is good for him considering his name ID is not overwhelming. Eight percent undecided also is a positive sign for Miller. But the ad avalanche is coming -- on both sides -- and could move these numbers.

As for Marshall, the memo indicates that she can win because of her superior name ID and better "profile." I never put much stock in those "looks good on paper" hypotheticals, and Marshall surely has to be worried about down-ticket ignorance and any GOP wave. But 46 percent ain't bad at this stage.

(I have seen the entire polling instrument but only am at liberty to release the memo.)