Democratic poll shows CD3 is up for grabs

The two likely nominees for the right to succeed Rep. Joe Heck are in a dead heat, according to a poll taken by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The survey, taken last week, shows synagogue chief Jacky Rosen ahead of state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, 30 percent to 29 percent. The poll of 403 CD3 voters has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The polling memo, which I have obtained and is posted here (I've also seen the entire poll), paints a very optimistic picture, not surprisingly, for the Democrats in this nationally targeted seat, which has only been held by one Democrat (Dina Titus) for one term since it was created in 2001. Key points:

►Roberson and Rosen are both little known, so a district where Republicans and Democrats are evenly split naturally would show a tie. The campaigns will mean everything.

Rosen and Roberson have primaries, with the latter perhaps more problematic. But neither is assured of the nomination.

This result shows why the Democrats, as they are wont to do, may meddle in the GOP primary to try to damage Roberson. When someone is so unknown, early definition can be....defining.


NV-03 Poll Release Memo 4.4.2016 by Jon Ralston