DCCC poll: Rosen, Clinton lead in CD3

A survey taken for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows the party's nominees for Congress and president leading in Rep. Joe Heck's swing congressional district.

These are the first public polling results from Nevada in the White House race since both primary races ended (there wasn't much before, either), and they indicate Hillary Clinton likely is ahead of Donald Trump in the state. Both the congressional and presidential contests have a substantial number of undecided voters four months from Election Day -- about a quater of voters in both races.

The poll of Congressional District 3 voters, conducted 10 days ago, showed Jacky Rosen leading Danny Tarkanian by 40 percent to 34 percent and Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 43-35. The DCCC surveyed 341 likely voters, a relatively small sample, which resulted in a 5.3 percent margin of error.

The polling memo, which is below, shows Rosen well ahead among independents and Hispanics. Although she clearly is not as well known as Tarkanian, his favorability ratings with the general electorate are upside down (22/35).

Heck's district is almost evenly split among Democrats and Republicans, with the former enjoying a 5,000-voter advantage among 352,000 total voters. The presidential race numbers indicate that if Clinton has a substantial lead in Heck's district, she likely is ahead statewide by a clear margin.

President Obama won Heck's district by less than a point in 2012 when he won Nevada by 6 points; he took the district by 9 points in 2008 when he won the state by more than 12 points. So if you extrapolate, with Clinton winning handily in overwhelmingly Democratic CD1 and CD4 and losing big in the rest of the state, it's not unreasonable to believe Clinton's Nevada lead could be in the high single digits.

Both contests are subject to the vicissitudes of the national presidential race. And it is (relatively) early. But this snapshot shows CD3, only held once by a Democrat in its history, clearly is in play and that Nevada for the thrid straight presidential cycle leans blue.

(I have seen the entire poll. The demographics look good, and no push questions were asked before the horse races.)

06292016 NV 03 Polling Memo by Jon Ralston