Monthly archive
One of the reasons the Republicans remain optimistic about Mitt Romney winning Nevada is that they claim they have banked high-propensity voters who will swamp the Democrats on Tuesday because the opposition is turning out its inveterates and will have little left for Election Day.
This always seemed odd to me for this reason: Wouldn't a lot of high-propensity voters cast ballots early because they are, you know, high-propensity voters?
Truth is the Republicans may be banking on theories that...
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada.
That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor.
Some thoughts:
►The survey showed 51-47 for the president and 48-46 for Heller. The partisan breakdown -- 43-38, Democrats -- is sllightly less than the 7-point...
That's what site readers say. Largest number yet answered -- almost 1,000. Thanks for participating. A new poll is up!
The question: What will the president's margin of victory be in Clark County?
More than 10 points
39% (375 votes)
More than 15 points
34% (323 votes)
Single digits
26% (245 votes)
Total votes: 941
And I thought Reid-Angle was hard.
For two years, I have rested on my laurels after ignoring the public polls, trusting my reporting and gut and predicting Harry Reid would defeat Sharron Angle. Now it’s time to once again leap into the oracular breach, with an even more difficult U.S. Senate race (yes, it’s harder to call this one based on data I have seen) and a state Senate matrix that is as blurry as can be.
Before I go over my 2012 forecast, a reminder of my record, so you can judge for...
Welcome to The Weekly Report, where you find exclusive commentary and analysis. As always, I welcome feedback. Please tell me what you like and don’t like.
This week:
1. My column: What the early voting numbers mean for a Romney victory in Nevada
2. By the numbers: The 2008 fallacy, and diving into other races
3. State of the Races
MY COLUMN—WHAT MITT ROMNEY NEEDS TO WIN NEVADA
Mitt Romney can still win Nevada.
But I have to believe with these numbers, some Republicans are now...