Yes, it's nuts to predict in low-turnout primaries. But to do what I do for as long as I have....I'm nuts.
So here are a few, with emphasis on GOP primaries that feature moneyed candidates vs. insurgents:
►Lieutenant governor: If Sue Lowden wins this race, it should be regarded as one of the greatest upsets in Nevada political history, low turnout or no. She has not written a very big check. Her campaign has been at times childish, at times unfathomable. Her ads have been singularly amateurish and awful. And Mark Hutchison, while he has been testy in debates, has been a workaholic, spent seven figures and had a popular governor at his side. If Lowden wins, my guess is a lot of strange results will occur, including legislative incumbents losing. That would be something.
Hutchison, 52 percent; Lowden, 40 percent; others and none of the above, 8 percent.
►CD4: This is a very difficult one to pick. Niger Innis is a much better candidate – glib, quick, relentless. Cresent Hardy has the home-field advantage – Innis seems like a newcomer – but he is not dynamic on the stump. Flipping a coin might be better, but I won’t.
Hardy, 48 percent; Innis, 46 percent; rest, 4 percent.
►Clark County sheriff: Joe Lombardo used his huge cash advantage wisely, blanketing the airwaves for weeks. Larry Burns will be helped by the LDS turnout, I think. Ted Moody just didn’t have the money to compete.
Lombardo, 38 percent; Burns 29 percent; Moody, 18 percent; rest 15 percent.
►SD20: By all rights, Michael Roberson should crush Carl Bunce. He has the money, the great field operation, the power of incumbency. But Bunce has the low turnout, the AFL-CIO, that late, huge TV buy funded by his mysterious benefactor. Hard to believe Bunce can win, but he may make it interesting.
Roberson, 54 percent; Bunce, 46 percent.
►SD9: Becky Harris is a flawed candidate – moved into district at last second, former Democrat, didn’t sign the tax pledge (good for her, bad for this electorate). Vick Gill is a “doctor “ with a degree from Aruba, and he has Team Tark and family money. Field expert Billy Rogers is the difference for Harris.
Harris, 45 percent; Gill, 40 percent; others, 15 percent.