Poll: Sandoval would defeat Reid by double digits

UPDATED WITH FULL POLLING INSTRUMENT ATTACHED, 9:30 AM

 

Gov. Brian Sandoval leads Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by 10 percentage points in a hypothetical 2016 U.S. Senate matchup, according to a new poll that represents the first public release of results in this potential race.

The survey, conducted by Harper Polling earlier this week, also shows, as other surveys do, Sandoval cruising to re-election (56-34) over Bob Goodman. The robo-survey of 602 statewide voters has a margin of error of 4 percent.

Sandoval crushes Reid among independents, 65-28. Reid's 55 percent unfavorable rating is all but fatal -- you know, just as it was in 2010.

There is a lot of other data in the survey, which pollster Brock McCleary said he paid for himself, likely as an entree into Nevada to try to get business. The numbers, demographics (43-37 Dem/GOP, 53-47 female/male) generally look solid, although Sandoval's unfavorable number (30 percent) seems a tad high (although possible). Harper is a former GOP operative on Capitol Hill, running the polling operation for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

I have attached his poll memo below (I have seen the entire survey), but his findings also include:

►The Education Initiative is losing by 9 percentage points (although the question is too generic).

►Hillary Clinton holds her own here against Rand Paul (47-44), Jeb Bush (46-41) and Susana Martinez (48-35), but she is no lock.

►Nevadans are split on same sex marriage and pot legalization.

►President Obama's numbers (38-56) are horrible.

►One more thing: McClearly mischievously tested a certain pundit's numbers (62 percent name ID, 35-27 fave/unfave), indicating he could be a formidable candidate at some point....