Democratic lead in Clark above 61,000; Washoe still super-tight

STATEWIDE UPDATE: The Democrats have just under a 41,000-vote statewide lead going into the last day of early voting.

 

Democrats gained about 6,000 voters on the penultimate day of early voting in Clark County while Republicans won Thursday in Washoe County by about 200 votes.

It appears the Democrats, who now lead in Clark by 61,000 voters, will have somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 40,000-voter lead -- perhaps slightly more -- in Nevada going into Election Day. If partisan voting patterns are predictable and if independents are, as credible polls show, relatively close, the GOP will need a huge turnout Tuesday for Mitt Romney to have any chance. And it also means that U.S. Senate race could be a nail-biter.

Turnout will be greater than what it was four years ago. In 2008, 392,427 people voted early; this year, with one day left, it's at 388,456.

Here are the totals for Clark, including mail ballots:

Democrats -- 205,878, or 47.6 percent

Republicans -- 144,745, or 33.5 percent

Others -- 81,345, or 18.9 percent

The GOP now has a 2.3 percent turnout edge (55.1 percent-52.8 percent). A slight turnout advantage but a 61,000-vote deficit? Yes, folks, registration matters.

Both parties have numbers that show they still have high-propensity voters to turn out Tuesday. If the GOP really has enough, the party could make a serious dent in the deficit. If not, and if indies don't break heavily for Mitt Romney, he will lose Nevada.