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Silver State bucks trend tracked by Silver

Although non-partisan registration has grown in Nevada since 2008, the state's overwhelming Democratic surge has gone counter to a trend in many states.

This afternnon, statistics guru Nate Silver of The New York Times put out a series of Tweets about trends in the 15 states that track voter registration every month. Most recent Tweet at top:

PAC alert: A city councilman's, a state senator's, a Latino group's and a drug company's

Three weeks from early voting, and we have a city councilman trying to affect legislative races, a Hispanic organization getting...organized, a state Senate candidate getting his own PAC and a Big Pharma group coming to Nevada:

Latino BIZPAC -- After all of these years and with fewer than 40 days left until the election, theLatin Chamber of Commerce has set up a political action committee. Longtime boss Otto Merida and businessman Brian Ayala are listed on the registration form.

Reid uses op-eds to assail Romney, Heller

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid penned a pair of op-eds in Nevada papers today -- one to go directly after Mitt Romney and the other to promote renewable energy while firing a parenthetical barb at Sen. Dean Heller.

Charting Obama vs. Romney in Nevada

UPDATED BELOW THE CHART

The Huffington Post has a nice chart for Nevada (and all other states) on the presidential race since the beginning of the year. You will see that President Obama has never been behind in any public poll here.

I do have a problem with any poll average because bad data pollutes it. But one argument is that there are so many polls that the bad data is diluted -- unless, of course, it's like 2010 when all of the data here indicated that Sharron Angle would defeat Harry Reid. Here's the poll chart, courtesy of HuffPo:

Berkley-Heller debate was an embarrassment all around

If ever there were a time capsule dedicated to the dissipation of political discourse, Thursday evening’s Nevada U.S. Senate debate should be a featured item.

The candidates showed a consistent lack of respect for the electorate, leaving one to wonder: Do the voters deserve the disdain? I worry about the answer.

Culinary not only registering voters but giving members list of endorsed candidates

The list below isn't newsworthy in and of itself -- there are few surprises.

But the Culinary union, which will turn out tens of thousands of voters when early voting begins Oct. 20,  will send the endorsed candidate matrix to its members, giving them time to reinforce who the leaders support. This could be a powerful tool as the election closes, and it will be interesting to match the list with who wins on Nov. 6.

 

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President & Vice President / Presidente y Vicepresidente

                Barack Obama

A preview of tonight's U.S. Senate debate

 

Debates don’t often matter much in campaigns dominated by television ads that have much greater influence. But as Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley engage in the first of their three confrontations tonight, I think they may have a large impact.

Why?

New NBC poll: Obama up 2, Heller up 6 in Nevada

In results sure to confuse/infuriate/thrill partisans, the fourth poll on Nevada released this week shows President Obama up by 2 points over Mitt Romney among likely voters and Sen. Dean Heller up 6 points over Rep. Shelley Berkley.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey -- I have posted the entire Nevada poll below -- also shows that among registered voters, Obama is up 7 and Heller is up 4. Registered voters can be more reliable in a presidential year when turnout is 80 percent-plus.

The U.S. Senate debate drinking game

Tonight, from 8 PM to 9 PM, Sen. Dean Heller and Rep. Shelley Berkley will square off in their first debate on public TV, North and South.

If that doesn't excite you enough, here's what to do -- take a swig of your favorite drink every time this happens:

Heller says the word "ethics"

Berkley says the word "Medicare"

Heller says the words "Harry Reid"

Berkley says the words "Big Oil"

Heller says the word "corrupt"

Berkley says the words "Wall Street"

Heller says the words "Obamacare" and "stimulus" and "TARP"

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